Mar 3, 2025, 09:00 AM ET
Thirty-one Division I men’s college basketball conferences will begin the process of crowning their 2024-25 tournament champions this week and next. Champ Week began Sunday with the first round of Atlantic Sun games, and it will overlap with the end of regular-season play for a number of conferences.
Champ Week will end on March 16, when five leagues — the Ivy League, Atlantic 10, SEC, American and Big Ten — crown their winners just before the selection committee unveils the 68-team bracket for the 2025 NCAA tournament.
The winner of each conference tournament will receive the automatic bid to the big dance, along with bragging rights to cap off the season. ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf, Joe Lunardi and Neil Paine try to pick who those 31 teams will be, and make a case for each pick.
Find all their picks and analysis below, listed in the order in which tourney tickets will be punched.
For the full schedule, brackets and results of Champ Week, click here.
Neil Paine will keep you informed on all the at-large hopes and dreams over at Bubble Watch, while Joe Lunardi will continue to update the projected field of 68 with Bracketology right up until the actual field is announced.
Find the NCAA tournament’s dates, sites and schedules for each round here.
And don’t forget to sign up for the men’s Tournament Challenge.
Stats through March 2, unless otherwise noted.
Ohio Valley Conference
Saturday, March 8, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Borzello: Little Rock
Lunardi: Southeast Missouri State
Medcalf: SIU Edwardsville
ESPN Analytics: Southeast Missouri State (34%)
Why Southeast Missouri State will win: The Redhawks were riding a 10-game winning streak before Saturday’s loss to Eastern Illinois. They are 3-1 against the league’s top contenders, including an impressive 15-point win at SIUE last week. They may or may not be the best team in the conference, but they are playing the best at the right time. And that includes leading the OVC in foul shooting and committing the fewest turnovers. — Lunardi
Why Little Rock will win: The Trojans have the league’s best defense, forcing turnovers at a high rate and holding teams to less than 46% shooting inside the arc. They won at Southeast Missouri earlier this season and are able to go toe-to-toe with the favorites. Johnathan Lawson is a big-time scorer, and former LSU transfer Mwani Wilkinson is starting to pick it up offensively again. — Borzello
Why SIU Edwardsville will win: The best player in this tournament? The Cougars’ Ray’Sean Taylor (19.2 PPG). SIUE enters March as one of the league’s top offensive teams (second in turnover percentage) as well as with a top-three defense. But it’s Taylor’s star power (he has had 10 league games with 20 points or more) that could lead the Cougars to the title. — Medcalf
Big South
Sunday, March 9, noon ET, ESPN2
Borzello: High Point
Lunardi: High Point
Medcalf: High Point
ESPN Analytics: High Point (61%)
Why High Point will win: This is an easy call. High Point has won 11 games in a row. The Panthers are 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, the third-highest mark for a non-Power 4 school in the country. They’re the best offensive and defensive team in this league. Even when Texas Tech transfer D’Maurian Williams (14.4 PPG) missed a few games in late February, they continued to win without him. — Medcalf
Atlantic Sun
Sunday, March 9, TBD, ESPN networks
Borzello: North Alabama
Lunardi: Lipscomb
Medcalf: North Alabama
ESPN Analytics: Lipscomb (54%)
Why Lipscomb will win: It’s a dead heat between Lipscomb and North Alabama. Both are 22-9 overall and 14-4 in the league. And they split their two meetings, in which the Bisons scored a total of two more points. My argument is Lipscomb has the best player in the conference: 6-foot-9 senior Jacob Ognacevic. He makes the difference in the likely rubber game. — Lunardi
play
North Alabama Lions vs. Lipscomb Bisons: Game Highlights
North Alabama Lions vs. Lipscomb Bisons: Game Highlights
Why North Alabama will win: Sometimes the hottest team is the one that takes advantage of that momentum in the conference tournament. North Alabama is 8-1 entering the conference tournament. The Lions also sit atop the league’s standings in a tie with Lipscomb. Plus, Jacari Lane is one of six players averaging double figures. — Medcalf
Missouri Valley Conference
Sunday, March 9, 2:10 p.m. ET, CBS
Borzello: Drake
Lunardi: Drake
Medcalf: Drake
ESPN Analytics: Drake (42%)
Why Drake will win: It says Drake should be in the NCAA tournament regardless of the results of Arch Madness. Of course, we said the same thing last year about Indiana State. The Bulldogs are an incredible story regardless, hiring a Division II coach (Ben McCollum) and importing four of his starters from a national championship team. That group has lost only three times in 30 games at Drake, after going 29-5 last year at Northwest Missouri State. Maybe they’re just good at basketball. — Lunardi
Summit League
Sunday, March 9, 9 p.m. ET, CBSSN
Borzello: South Dakota State
Lunardi: South Dakota State
Medcalf: St. Thomas-Minnesota
ESPN Analytics: South Dakota State (30%)
Why South Dakota State will win: Nobody’s picking Omaha, the regular-season champs?! I’m sure this will be bulletin board material for the Mavericks. But South Dakota State has the best player in the league in Oscar Cluff and a coach who has been to the NCAA tournament in two of the past three seasons in Eric Henderson. The Jackrabbits have the best defense in the Summit, too. — Borzello
Why St. Thomas-Minnesota will win: Coach Johnny Tauer is searching for his first Summit League conference tournament championship since St. Thomas became a Division I team three years ago (the program is not eligible for the NCAA tournament because it is still in the middle of its transition to D-I). It could happen this year for the Tommies, who own the best offense in the league (59% inside the arc, 39% from beyond the arc). Kendall Blue is one of five players on the roster who have made at least 40% of their 3-point attempts. — Medcalf
Southern Conference
Monday, March 10, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN2
Borzello: East Tennessee State
Lunardi: UNC Greensboro
Medcalf: Chattanooga
ESPN Analytics: Samford (28%)
Why East Tennessee State will win: This will be one of the most wide-open conference tournaments in the country, so I’m going with a sleeper. East Tennessee State swept Samford and blew out UNC Greensboro, so the Buccaneers have already shown they can hang with the best teams in the league. The biggest key will be health: A variety of guys have missed time with injuries in recent weeks. But at full strength, led by the league’s best player in Quimari Peterson, they can beat anyone. — Borzello
Why UNC Greensboro will win: UNCG will need to bounce back after taking it on the chin at home to Chattanooga in the regular season’s final week. The Spartans can, and will, do it with defense, as they led the SoCon in effective field goal percentage allowed and held opponents to 70 points or fewer in 12 of 18 conference games. That’s a good way to win in March. — Lunardi
Why Chattanooga will win: Honor Huff (14.9 PPG, 42% from the 3-point line) anchors the best offense in the league. A struggling defense could be a challenge, but the Mocs were unstoppable over the past month. Their win streak (now up to 11 after victories over UNC Greensboro and VMI) could continue into the league tournament. — Medcalf
Why ESPN Analytics says Samford will win: As Jeff noted above, the SoCon is wide open this season, with just five games separating No. 1 Chattanooga (15-3) from No. 6 Wofford (10-8). Despite running three games behind the Mocs, the metrics tend to like Samford best — the Bulldogs rank around 10-15 spots better than anyone else in the SoCon according to predictive ratings such as the BPI, KenPom and Bart Torvik, on the strength of their balance. — Paine
Sun Belt Conference
Monday, March 10, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Borzello: Arkansas State
Lunardi: Arkansas State
Medcalf: Arkansas State
ESPN Analytics: Arkansas State (38%)
Why Arkansas State will win: A 13-point road win at Memphis in early December has left a lasting impression. The Red Wolves are the unanimous pick, despite being one of four teams to share the regular-season title and not playing their best in February. Bryan Hodgson’s team is loaded with a slew of high-major transfers, headlining the best offense in the league. — Borzello
Horizon League
Tuesday, March 11, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN2
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Borzello: Robert Morris
Lunardi: Milwaukee
Medcalf: Cleveland State
ESPN Analytics: Milwaukee (26%)
Why Milwaukee will win: The Panthers have won the most Horizon League games during the past three years (40) with not much to show for it. The stretch includes a loss to Cinderella Oakland in the title game a year ago. Milwaukee is just due, and its winning formula — dominating the offensive and defensive glass — should be enough to overcome suspect 3-point shooting. — Lunardi
Why Robert Morris will win: I’m surprised to be the only one to pick the Colonials, given Andy Toole’s team has lost just once since Jan. 8 — with a sweep of Milwaukee and road wins at Youngstown State and Cleveland State among the wins. Toole has won two conference tournament titles in his coaching career and has an elite inside-outside duo in Kam Woods and Alvaro Folgueiras. — Borzello
Why Cleveland State will win: Before a late-season slide, Cleveland State had won 13 games in a row and started 11-1 in league play. During that stretch, the Vikings made 39% of their 3-point attempts and also capitalized on second-chance opportunities with a top-50 offensive rebounding rate. They haven’t looked like that team lately, but the group that didn’t lose for nearly two months could quickly regain its mojo in the postseason. — Medcalf
Northeast Conference
Tuesday, March 11, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Borzello: Central Connecticut
Lunardi: Central Connecticut
Medcalf: Central Connecticut
ESPN Analytics: Central Connecticut (59%)
Why Central Connecticut will win: The Blue Devils enter the conference tournament as the hottest team in the league, and one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 12 in a row after starting conference play 2-2. Patrick Sellers has done a terrific job flipping the program that struggled for years under various coaches. We think the Blue Devils and their all-conference duo of Jordan Jones and Devin Haid will be enough. — Borzello
Coastal Athletic Association
Tuesday, March 11, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN
Borzello: Charleston
Lunardi: UNC Wilmington
Medcalf: UNC Wilmington
ESPN Analytics: UNC Wilmington (31%)
Why UNC Wilmington will win: Takayo Siddle, 38, has won 20-plus games in four consecutive seasons. But this is the season he finally earns that trip to the NCAA tournament. Why? The Seahawks are, by a solid margin, the best offensive team in the league. During their recent eight-game win streak, they scored 80 points or more in seven of those matches. When they’re playing like that, no CAA competitor can match them. — Medcalf
Why Charleston will win: It’s uncomfortable not picking Towson or UNC Wilmington, especially because UNCW beat Charleston by 20 points a couple of weeks ago and Towson won the CAA by multiple games. But Charleston has arguably the best player in the league in Ante Brzovic, a bunch of capable scorers around him and a coach who has been to the tournament before in Chris Mack. Can it all click at the right time? I’m betting on it. — Borzello
West Coast Conference
Tuesday, March 11, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Borzello: Gonzaga
Lunardi: Gonzaga
Medcalf: Saint Mary’s
ESPN Analytics: Gonzaga (60%)
Why Gonzaga will win: This season qualifies as a “down year” for the Zags, which probably says more about the program’s standard of quality than its shortcomings. Yes, Gonzaga ranks an uncharacteristic 48th in Strength of Record, its worst showing since 2010-11, and it isn’t a 100% lock to make the NCAA tourney. It was even swept during the regular season by Saint Mary’s for the first time since 2015-16. The Zags are nevertheless favored to win the WCC tourney because their predictive stats are so much better than their résumé rankings: Gonzaga ranks 11th or better in the nation in KenPom, BPI and Bart Torvik’s ratings, besting Saint Mary’s with relative ease in each category. The Bulldogs are probably far better than they appear, and that makes them a scary postseason matchup both here and in the NCAA tournament. — Paine
play
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: Game Highlights
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: Game Highlights
Why Saint Mary’s will win: Well, the Gaels swept the regular-season series over Gonzaga. That feels like compelling evidence to make them the favorites to win the WCC championship. Augustas Marciulionis and Co. held the Bulldogs to under 100 points per 100 possessions in the first game and recorded a 44% offensive rebounding rate in the second. The Gaels are the best team in the league. That’s why they’ll win the league’s tournament. — Medcalf
Southland Conference
Wednesday, March 12, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Borzello: McNeese
Lunardi: McNeese
Medcalf: McNeese
ESPN Analytics McNeese (73%)
Why McNeese will win: The Cowboys are the most overwhelming favorite in any conference tournament this year. They lapped the field in the Southland, losing only one game (at Nicholls) and posting the league’s top offense and top defense. Though it didn’t make the national impact many expected, this is a dangerous and talented squad that might be saving its biggest win for the four-letter tourney. — Lunardi
Patriot League
Wednesday, March 12, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN
Borzello: Bucknell
Lunardi: Bucknell
Medcalf: Army
ESPN Analytics: Bucknell (26%)
Why Bucknell will win: The Bison are far and away the Patriot League’s best team by the metrics, ranking 35 spots better in the KenPom ratings than anyone else in the conference. They haven’t lost in regulation since Jan. 20, allowing just 61.3 PPG during their recent stretch of eight wins in nine games. They split the season series with both American and Colgate, the two closest teams to them in the predictive rankings, so an automatic bid is far from assured, but they’ve done well to rebound from a 4-4 start in conference play. — Paine
Why Army will win: Although Army weathered a rocky February, it also finished with a 3-3 record against American, Bucknell and Colgate — the top three teams in the Patriot standings. The team hasn’t been clear about Josh Scovens‘ recent arm injury, but this pick was made assuming the team would be healthy. And if that’s the case, the Knights have proven they can compete with the best teams in the conference, especially without top scorer Jalen Rucker, who missed the 2023-24 season. — Medcalf
Big Sky
Wednesday, March 12, 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
Borzello: Northern Colorado
Lunardi: Northern Colorado
Medcalf: Montana
ESPN Analytics: Northern Colorado (32%)
Why Northern Colorado will win: Northern Colorado wants and needs to outscore you, even if its defense is a bit underrated. During the most dominating game in the league this season, the Bears went to Montana and blasted the regular-season champions, 81-57. Bottom line: The Bears make shots. Their effective field goal percentage (57.5) didn’t just lead the Big Sky; it was sixth in the country. — Lunardi
Why Montana will win: Saturday’s loss at Portland State was the Grizzlies’ first since Jan. 18. They’ve made 40% of their 3-point attempts in conference play and Malik Moore (13.2 PPG) is one of four players averaging double figures in points. Head coach Travis DeCuire will earn his first Big Sky tournament title since 2019. — Medcalf
America East
Saturday, March 15, 11 a.m. ET, TBD
Borzello: Vermont
Lunardi: Bryant
Medcalf: Vermont
ESPN Analytics: Bryant (31%)
Why Vermont will win: It was only a month ago when Vermont’s reign atop the America East looked to be over. The Catamounts were 11-11 overall and 4-3 in the league — but they haven’t lost since, and once again look capable of going to the NCAA tournament for a fourth straight year. Even if this is the least dominant team of the John Becker era, it’s difficult to pick against the March tradition of the Catamounts. — Borzello
Why Bryant will win: Vermont has dominated the America East for so long that it’s easy to miss the league’s best player, 6-6 Earl Timberlake, at Bryant. The Bulldogs have been carefully building for this moment since departing the Northeast Conference after the 2021-22 season. Phil Martelli Jr. also has perimeter players who are 6-6, 6-6 and 6-8. It’s a big reason Bryant has the league’s top offense and top defense. — Lunardi
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Saturday, March 15, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN2
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Borzello: Norfolk State
Lunardi: Norfolk State
Medcalf: Norfolk State
ESPN Analytics: Norfolk State (48%)
Why Norfolk State will win: The Spartans have been the class of the MEAC this season, with just two losses in conference play entering the final week of the regular season. They are the only MEAC team among the top 200 nationally in any of the major predictive ratings. Keep an eye on junior combo guard Brian Moore Jr., who leads the team with 18.4 PPG and has stepped his game up in a big way since transferring from Murray State. — Paine
Mountain West
Saturday, March 15, 6 p.m. ET, CBS
Borzello: Utah State
Lunardi: Utah State
Medcalf: New Mexico
ESPN Analytics: New Mexico (24%)
Why Utah State will win: Utah State’s remarkable run of success did not miss a beat when Jerrod Calhoun took over for Danny Sprinkle this season. Or when Sprinkle took over for Ryan Odom a season earlier. Or even when Odom took over for Craig Smith in 2022. The Aggies win. All that’s missing from their half-decade of NCAA teams is a conference tournament title. — Lunardi
Why New Mexico will win: Rick Pitino isn’t the only member of his family who deserves national coach of the year buzz. Richard Pitino, his son, lost top scorer Jamal Mashburn Jr. and standout JT Toppin in the transfer portal over the spring, and yet the Lobos ended February atop the Mountain West standings. Donovan Dent (20.0 PPG) anchors a team that plays top-25 defense, too. It has been a great year for the Pitino family. — Medcalf
Big 12 Conference
Saturday, March 15, 6 p.m. ET, network TBD
Borzello: Iowa State
Lunardi: Houston
Medcalf: Houston
ESPN Analytics: Houston (51%)
Why Houston will win: It has been clear for a month that Houston regained its form, only with a better offense than what we’ve seen recently. Adding a scoring guard like L.J. Cryer to a frontcourt anchored by the ultra-dependable J’Wan Roberts is almost a cheat code. Winning the Big 12 by multiple games in its first two seasons is impressive enough. It’s time for the Cougars to add the conference tournament trophy. — Lunardi
play
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Houston Cougars: Game Highlights
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Houston Cougars: Game Highlights
Why Iowa State will win: I had a feeling everyone would pick Houston, so I went against the grain a bit — and I’m still a believer in a fully healthy Iowa State. Now, will the Cyclones be healthy for the conference tournament? That’s a concern. But if Keshon Gilbert is back and the offense is again firing on all cylinders, I’m back in. They’ve lost only one game this season at full strength. — Borzello
Big East Conference
Saturday, March 15, 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Borzello: UConn
Lunardi: St. John’s
Medcalf: St. John’s
ESPN Analytics: St. John’s (26%)
Why UConn will win: St. John’s would have been the easy pick. The best team in the league this season, playing on its home court, all the momentum in the world. But we don’t do easy! Champ Week is for upsets! So I’ll go with UConn because it would make for some great narratives entering the NCAA tournament. If Alex Karaban can find his shot consistently, I think the Huskies can make a run. — Borzello
Why St. John’s will win: Wait, taking the two-time defending NCAA champion (and defending Big East champ) Huskies isn’t the easy pick? I suppose that speaks volumes about Rick Pitino’s performance in his second season with the Red Storm, that losing to a team with UConn’s pedigree would be an upset. St. John’s looks like the Big East’s best squad this season, as the conference’s only team in the top 25 in BPI, KenPom and Bart Torvik’s ratings. Fun fact: The Johnnies haven’t lost a game by more than three points this season, with their average margin of defeat just 1.8 PPG in four losses. Even so, winning this conference won’t be easy: Including St. John’s, four teams have at least a 20% chance in the ESPN Analytics forecast. — Paine
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Saturday, March 15, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN networks
Borzello: Merrimack
Lunardi: Quinnipiac
Medcalf: Merrimack
ESPN Analytics: Quinnipiac (27%)
Why Merrimack will win: Joe Gallo could win his third consecutive regular-season title this year, albeit in a different league. But this is just the second season that the Warriors have been eligible to play in the NCAA tournament after their four-year transition to Division I. They’re first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency and they probably have the best player, too. Adam Clark is averaging 20.1 PPG. He could help his team make history in the postseason. — Medcalf
Why Quinnipiac will win: The Bobcats play stifling defense while also leading the MAAC in offensive tempo, a stark contrast to league slowpokes Merrimack and Marist. If Tom Pecora’s players push the pace, they should hit it big in Atlantic City. — Lunardi
Mid-American Conference
Saturday, March 15, 7:40 p.m. ET, ESPN networks
Borzello: Akron
Lunardi: Akron
Medcalf: Akron
ESPN Analytics: Akron (30%)
Why Akron will win: The Zips play fast, they shoot a bunch of 3-pointers and score in waves. During MAC play, they made more than 61% of their shots inside the arc. That’s ridiculous, and it’s also one of the reasons John Groce’s squad had a three-game lead over second-place Miami (Ohio) in the MAC standings entering the final week of conference play. — Medcalf
Conference USA
Saturday, March 15, 8:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN
Borzello: Liberty
Lunardi: Liberty
Medcalf: Jacksonville State
ESPN Analytics: Liberty (43%)
Why Liberty will win: The Flames have taken some losses, even at home as recently as this past Sunday, but they are the best team in the league. A tough closing week of the regular season awaits — at Middle Tennessee on Thursday then at Western Kentucky on Saturday — but the neutral conference tournament works in their favor. That, coupled with the CUSA’s best defense, should result in Ritchie McKay’s third NCAA bid in Lynchburg. — Lunardi
Why Jacksonville State will win: Ray Harper’s Gamecocks are one of the league’s most balanced teams (third in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency). At their best, the Gamecocks won eight games in a row from mid-January to mid-February. They sit atop the standings for a reason. Plus, former Wichita State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr., who has had five 30-point efforts this season, might be the league’s player of the year. — Medcalf
Atlantic Coast Conference
Saturday, March 15, 8:30 p.m. ET, network TBD
Borzello: Duke
Lunardi: Duke
Medcalf: Duke
ESPN Analytics: Duke (72%)
Why Duke will win: Cooper Flagg, perhaps you’ve heard of him? He’s the premier talent for a Duke team that has dominated the ACC like never before. That’s more a reflection of a weakened ACC, of course, but the Blue Devils’ magnificence should still not be overlooked. Their average margin of victory in 17 conference wins is 23.2 points per game. No team does that in a power conference, not even Duke. A loss at the ACC tournament would be one of Champ Week’s biggest upsets. — Lunardi
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Saturday, March 15, 9:30 p.m. ET, network TBD
Borzello: Jackson State
Lunardi: Southern
Medcalf: Southern
ESPN Analytics: Southern (37%)
Why Southern will win: No team in the league has made more than 36% of its 3-point attempts, leaving ample opportunities for second-chance points. No team has capitalized on those opportunities more than Southern (No. 1 in offensive rebounding rate). Kevin Johnson’s Jaguars have also forced turnovers on nearly one-fifth of their opponents’ possessions, which was significant in their overtime win over Jackson State (16 turnovers) this year. — Medcalf
Why Jackson State will win: After going 0-13 in nonconference play, Jackson State has produced the SWAC’s best offense under Mo Williams — and the Tigers have an incredibly dynamic point guard leading the way in Daeshun Ruffin. They’re aggressive with the ball, constantly attacking and getting to the free throw line. And they’re the best free throw shooting team in the league. In the lone meeting between Jackson State and Southern, the Jaguars won by two points in overtime. That result flips in the tournament. — Borzello
Big West Conference
Saturday, March 15, 11:40 p.m. ET, network TBD
Borzello: UC San Diego
Lunardi: UC San Diego
Medcalf: UC San Diego
ESPN Analytics: UC San Diego (59%)
Why UC San Diego will win: In their first year of tournament eligibility, the Tritons have built to this moment through five steady Division I seasons under coach Eric Olen. They have chased — and, for now, surpassed — annual Big West front-runner UC Irvine at the top of the Big West. Posting a top-35 NET ranking at the end of a Division II transition period is nothing short of remarkable, as the nation will soon discover. Plus, there has never been a Triton in the NCAA tournament — the selection committee should reward UC San Diego for that alone. — Lunardi
Western Athletic Conference
Saturday, March 15, 11:40 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Borzello: Grand Canyon
Lunardi: Grand Canyon
Medcalf: Utah Valley
ESPN Analytics: Grand Canyon (58%)
Why Grand Canyon will win: We’re not ready to end the reign of coach Bryce Drew, Tyon Grant-Foster and the Antelopes atop the WAC. They’ve reached the NCAA tournament in two straight seasons and three of the past four, even beating Saint Mary’s in the first round last year. Grant-Foster recently suffered an injury worth monitoring, but he’s the most talented player in the league when healthy. Former TCU transfer JaKobe Coles isn’t far behind. And Ray Harrison is a former WAC Preseason Player of the Year. — Borzello
Why Utah Valley will win: One of the best junior college transfers in America, Dominick Nelson scored 21 points in his team’s win over Grand Canyon earlier this season. He’s the leader of a team with the most efficient offense in the league and a defense that has held nine league opponents under 70 points. It’s time for a changing of the guard in the WAC, and Utah Valley is ready to take the crown. — Medcalf
Ivy League
Sunday, March 16, Noon ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
Borzello: Yale
Lunardi: Yale
Medcalf: Yale
ESPN Analytics: Yale (66%)
Why Yale will win: Yale stumbled at Harvard in the season’s penultimate week, but the Bulldogs remain the class of the Ivy League. In what was supposed to be a two-team race, they swept Princeton and won the Ancient Eight going away. Of course, none of this will mean much if they don’t win the two-game Ivy tournament (at Brown). A harder-than-it-sounds third win over Princeton may be required. — Lunardi
Atlantic 10
Sunday, March 16, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Borzello: VCU
Lunardi: VCU
Medcalf: VCU
ESPN Analytics: VCU (49%)
Why VCU will win: The Rams lost only one game this calendar year and have ascended to the top of the A-10, one game ahead of George Mason. They also own a 16-point victory over the Patriots, a good sign of their postseason potential. It seems as if seniors Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga have played college basketball for decades, but the two veterans can lead VCU to its first NCAA tournament appearance in two years. — Medcalf
Southeastern Conference
Sunday, March 16, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN
Borzello: Florida
Lunardi: Auburn
Medcalf: Auburn
ESPN Analytics: Auburn (41%)
Why Auburn will win: Auburn has the only player (Johni Broome) who will challenge Cooper Flagg for the Wooden Award. The Tigers will win the SEC because, well, they’ve been better than the rest of the country this season. They have talent, depth, experience and elite defense. Oh, the bad news. Only three of the past 10 national champions won their conference tournaments. But it’s not easy to pick against a squad that has lost one game in three months. — Medcalf
play
No. 6 Florida upsets No. 1 Auburn on the road
No. 6 Florida takes down No. 1 Auburn on the road without Alijah Martin.
Why Florida will win: Given how good the top of the SEC has been this season, it doesn’t seem like the favorite will cut down the nets in the conference tournament. In SEC play, only Florida has beaten Auburn — so why can’t the Gators do it again? They have the size and athleticism around the rim to slow down Broome, and they’re physical enough on the perimeter to withstand Auburn’s guards. And late in the game, I’m taking Walter Clayton Jr. — Borzello
American Athletic Conference
Sunday, March 16, 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Borzello: Memphis
Lunardi: Memphis
Medcalf: Memphis
ESPN Analytics: Memphis (53%)
Why Memphis will win: Memphis made its bed in the nonconference stretch of the season, piling up five Quad 1 wins and essentially cementing an NCAA bid before the new year. The Tigers have been largely routine in league play, but they haven’t needed more than that against a diminished American slate. North Texas presents at least an on-paper challenge in the conference tournament, but Memphis remains a healthy favorite. — Lunardi
Big Ten
Sunday, March 16, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Borzello: Maryland
Lunardi: Michigan State
Medcalf: Michigan
ESPN Analytics: Michigan State (22%)
Why Michigan State will win: The Spartans were picked fifth in the Big Ten to start the season, but no matter. This is Tom Izzo and Michigan State we’re talking about. The Spartans have knocked off all the contenders in Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue and Illinois (twice). They can’t make a 3-point basket, it seems, but continue to suck the life out of opponents defensively and on the glass. They also shoot nearly 80% from the foul line. Sounds like the perfect way to win in March. (Again.) — Lunardi
Why Maryland will win: Entering March, there were only five teams ranked in the top 20 at KenPom in offensive and defensive efficiency — and four of them are who you’d think. But the fifth, and the only one from the Big Ten, was Maryland. The Terps don’t have much depth, but their starting five has a terrific point guard in Ja’Kobi Gillespie, two high-level bigs in Derik Queen and Julian Reese and two wings playing their best basketball in Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel. Their seven losses have come by an average of 3.9 points, so they need to learn how to win close games. Why not start now? — Borzello
Why Michigan will win: During a recent 7-1 stretch, Michigan played the fourth-best defense in America, according to barttorvik.com. Couple that improved defensive effort with a pair of 7-footers (Vladislav Goldin, Danny Wolf) running pick-and-roll action all game, and it’s an overwhelming dilemma for most opponents in a conference tournament format. Michigan was arguably the Big Ten’s best team in February. And its physicality will be tough to handle in the Big Ten tournament. That’s why the Wolverines will win. The field will have to adjust to their unique style. — Medcalf
