When in doubt, look to the Screen Actors Guild Awards. And this year, I’m very much in doubt.
Some years, it’s pretty easy to predict the major categories of the Academy Awards, particularly best picture. A single film, such as “Oppenheimer” last year or “Everything Everywhere All at Once” the year before, will dominate the conversation, win all or most of the earlier awards, and sweep into Oscar night like a monarch awaiting a coronation. Which is pretty dull to write about, so let’s celebrate: This year, as the Oscars arrive on March 2, it’s quite the tossup as to who the big winner will be.
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As befits these times we live in, the Oscar race has been wildly up and down. The musical “Emilia Pérez,” the initial front-runner with a total of 13 nominations, has seen its fortunes fall due to the reveal of numerous offensive tweets made by its star, Karla Sofía Gascón (a best actress nominee who went from early favorite to not-a-chance in record time). “The Brutalist,” likewise an early favorite, was beset with its own controversy when its editor revealed use of AI to enhance some of the actors’ Hungarian dialogue. This paved the way for “Anora,” which became the front-runner for what seemed like at least a few days. That was until “Conclave” had a surprise win at the British Academy Film Awards (commonly known as the BAFTAs), and then took the top prize (outstanding performance by a cast or ensemble in a motion picture) at the SAG awards last weekend, just as “Oppenheimer” and “Everything Everywhere” did in their years.
So there might be some actual suspense in this year’s Oscar show — other than whether host Conan O’Brien can meet the rather high bar set by Jimmy Kimmel, who’s hosted for the past two years and is good at the tricky balance of celebration and mockery that the gig requires. Let’s take a walk through the major categories and see how things are looking.
As described above, this category has been a journey and at this point it’s easiest to say who absolutely, definitely will not win: “Dune: Part Two,” whose presence in this list is a bit of an oddity; “I’m Still Here,” which will likely win international feature and won’t be a factor here; “Nickel Boys,” a creative masterpiece that has no buzz whatsoever in this category, probably because it’s too good; and “Emilia Pérez,” whose makers clearly would like to turn back time. As for the rest, who knows? If I were a betting woman — and I’m not, at least on Oscar night — I’d go with “Conclave,” a film seemingly liked by all, and the all-important SAG winner (though it doesn’t have a directing nod here, which drops the odds somewhat). The dark horse is “Anora,” which won both the directors’ and producers’ guild awards, and let’s not rule out “The Brutalist” or “A Complete Unknown,” both of which have numerous defenders. And is there a universe in which a box-office hit like “Wicked” could defy gravity and win? Maybe! (But probably not.)
Prediction: “Conclave”
My vote: “Nickel Boys”
Wish you were here: “A Real Pain”
See all of the above! I think this might be a year when the best picture and director categories are split, and the person most likely to benefit from that would be “Anora” director Sean Baker, who won the directors’ guild prize — and, months ago, the prestigious Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Brady Corbet, of “The Brutalist,” seems the only possibility to surprise; this one seems like Baker’s to win.
Prediction: Baker
My vote: Baker
Wish you were here: RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
Another roller coaster here, pitting a newcomer against a veteran — but it’s hard to imagine the Academy would forgo the narrative of seeing Demi Moore, at 62, win her first Oscar (after her first nomination) for a film in which she plays an actress facing the industry’s rejection of older women. The dark horse here is “Anora” ingénue Mikey Madison, who won the BAFTA and whose work in the film is a hey-world-I’m-here breakthrough. But don’t rule out the glorious work done by Fernanda Torres in “I’m Still Here” or Cynthia Erivo in “Wicked.” (Do rule out Gascón, whose Oscar dreams are long over.)
Prediction: Moore
My vote: Torres
Wish you were here: Zendaya, “Challengers”
This looked like an easy one to call for Adrien Brody, who previously won 22 years ago for “The Pianist” and has earned numerous accolades this year for “The Brutalist,” but the SAGs messed up that trajectory a bit, giving the award to Timothée Chalamet for his Bob Dylan transformation in “A Complete Unknown.” I still think Brody will take it, but perhaps Ralph Fiennes, who’s splendid in “Conclave,” might sneak in? Personally I’d hand the statuette to Colman Domingo, poetry in motion in “Sing Sing,” but the film doesn’t have much buzz.
Prediction: Brody
My vote: Domingo
Wish you were here: Glen Powell, “Hit Man”
The hopes of “Emilia Pérez” are now almost entirely on Zoe Saldaña, who in all honesty does not belong in this category (her role is basically a lead) but nonetheless deserves every accolade. Also in the Really a Lead category: Ariana Grande, so delightful in “Wicked.” On the other side of the spectrum: Isabella Rossellini has just a few minutes of screen time in “Conclave,” but practically explodes from the screen; might the Academy go for the sentimental vote and give this daughter of film royalty (her father was Italian filmmaker Robert Rossellini, her mother three-time Oscar-winning actress Ingrid Bergman) her first Oscar? We’ll see!
Prediction: Saldaña
My vote: Rossellini
Wish you were here: Carrie Coon, “His Three Daughters”
This is the easiest category to call (even though it, too, is a colead): Kieran Culkin, in “A Real Pain,” is both the comic relief and the film’s quiet soul. Should the “Succession” star lose, which nobody is predicting, look to Edward Norton in “A Complete Unknown” or Guy Pearce in “The Brutalist.” But really, this one looks like a sure thing.
Prediction: Culkin
My vote: Culkin
Wish you were here: Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”
Elsewhere, let’s cross our fingers for a local winner in two categories: Bremerton-based Julian Brave NoiseCat, who co-directed the haunting film “Sugarcane,” a contender in the documentary feature category; and musician Brandi Carlile, nominated with Elton John for the original song “Never Too Late.” And I can’t wait to see what Paul Tazewell, known to Seattle audiences for his recent designs for Pacific Northwest Ballet’s “The Sleeping Beauty,” wears to the podium to collect what’s surely his first Oscar for the glorious costumes of “Wicked.”
The ceremony gets underway Sunday afternoon at 4 p.m., broadcast live on ABC and streaming live on Hulu. See you then!
How to watch the Oscars
The 97th Academy Awards ceremony, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will be held Sunday starting at 4 p.m. The ceremony will be broadcast live on ABC, and can be streamed live on Hulu, abc.com and the ABC app by authenticating with your provider. It can also be streamed with a subscription to services such as YouTubeTV, AT&T TV and FuboTV. See oscars.org/how-to-watch for more information.
