Sunday night’s 2025 Oscars will be full of something many movies last year lacked: actual suspense.
It’s been an election-style season of scandals and momentum shifts that will all come to a head at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Tight races are everywhere in the big categories: Picture (“Anora” vs. “Conclave”), Actor (Timothée Chalamet vs. Adrien Brody) and Actress (Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison).
Here, Post critic Johnny Oleksinski picks who will win and who should win at the 2025 Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien on Sunday, March 2 at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Will Win, Should Win: “Anora”
The sensational stripper Cinderella story has won a convincing combo of lead-up prizes: The Cannes Palme d’Or, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Writers Guild and Critics Choice. Possible upset “Conclave,” about the election of a new pope, took the BAFTA and SAG, yes, but it’s the colder, thinkier movie of the two.
Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
In recent years, the Oscars have loved feel-good career awards. Think Michelle Yeoh and Brendan Fraser. This would be 62-year-old Moore’s first Oscar ever, and she hasn’t been shy about that. The one thing going against G.I. Jane is the divisiveness of her body-horror flick. That could swing it to Madison or even Torres.
Should Win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”
The 25-year-old phenom is pure magic in a performance that, while surrounded by superb actors, carries the movie of the year.
- Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
- Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
- Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win, Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown“
The 29-year-old actor winning the SAG Award felt like a big deal. Eighteen of the last 20 have gone on to win the Oscar. Yes, the also-excellent Adrien Brody of “The Brutalist” has gobbled up everything else, but those honors have been from critics and overseas voters (the Globes are more pinky-out than ever). It’s a toss-up, but I can’t help but feel that the 80% domestic Academy voters are somewhat indifferent to Brody’s movie.
©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win, Should Win: Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Pérez”
“Emilia Pérez” has been hit by controversy after controversy. But well-liked Saldana has kept winning regardless. She gives an intense and deeply felt turn as a lawyer whisked on a musical (and soap-operatic) journey.
©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win, Should Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain“
The quick-talking “Succession” star is sublime as a charismatic cousin whose life has gone off the rails during a trip to Poland. He’s been this year’s Robert Downey Jr. — unstoppable.
©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
The talented Baker has been around a while, and has stuck to his guns with acclaimed indie fare such as “The Florida Project” and “Tangerine.” Voters admire that, and his film. He won the top award from the DGA, which almost always overlaps with this Oscar category.
Should Win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
It’s hard to believe you’re watching an independent film and not some big studio prestige picture from the aughts. Thirty-six-year-old Corbet has a smart, sweeping vision I can’t wait to see more of.
WireImage
Will Win, Should Win: “I’m Still Here”
Behold the power of Brazil. Ever since Torres’ shock Actress – Drama win at the Golden Globes, and the South American country’s resulting tsunami of support, “I’m Still Here” has built many passionate fans stateside.
- “The Girl with the Needle,” Denmark
- “Emilia Pérez,” France
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany
- “Flow,” Latvia
AP
Will Win: “El Mal,” from “Emilia Pérez,” Music by Clément Ducol and Camille, Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
It’s the best tune from an original musical, and an easy box to casually check.
Should Win: None of them.
That the Oscars are said to begin with a 10-minute medley of old, un-nominated “Wicked” songs says it all.
- “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
- “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing,” Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
- “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez,” Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol
- “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late,” Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin
Penske Media via Getty Images
Will Win, Should Win: “Anora”
I chided the year’s overall lack of suspense earlier, but that criticism does not apply to Baker’s brilliant “Anora” script, which over three distinct, breakneck acts keeps audiences guessing till the very end.
- “The Brutalist”
- “A Real Pain”
- “September 5”
- “The Substance”
Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win, Should Win: “Conclave”
Writer Peter Straughan did a bang-up job of taking Robert Harris’ Vatican thriller novel and fashioning it into something, in turns, intimate and boldly cinematic.
- “A Complete Unknown”
- “Emilia Pérez”
- “Nickel Boys”
- “Sing Sing”
©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win, Should Win: “The Wild Robot”
Last year the Academy picked art (“The Boy and the Heron”) over commerce (“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”). But the former was directed by Oscar favorite and animation legend Hayao Miyazaki, while the latter was a sequel. “Flow” could prove the upset, but the creative and heart-tugging “Robot” should be able to complete its mission.
- “Flow”
- “Inside Out 2”
- “Memoir of a Snail”
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
DreamWorks Animation/ © Universal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win, Should Win: “The Brutalist”
Cinematographer Lol Crawley crafts jaw-dropping image after jaw-dropping image in this somehow-made-for-$10-million film.
- “Dune: Part Two”
- “Emilia Pérez”
- “Maria”
- “Nosferatu”
Will Win, Should Win: “The Brutalist”
Daniel Blumberg’s score is partly — as the title would suggest — brutal, with spiky factory clangs that alarm, but also pastoral and lush. It’s propulsive, like a moving train or a doggedly determined Hungarian immigrant. The only other music that comes close to making as much of an impression is the sinister strings of “Conclave.”
- “Conclave”
- “Emilia Pérez”
- “Wicked”
- “The Wild Robot”
Courtesy Everett Collection
Will Win, Should Win: “Anora”
If the movie’s momentum sustains throughout Oscars night, “Anora” should take editing by default. If it wobbles and “Conclave” starts looking like Best Picture, this is when that happens.
- “The Brutalist”
- “Conclave”
- “Emilia Pérez”
- “Wicked”
Will Win: “Wicked”
“Wicked” is nominated for a slew of craft awards, most of which it does not deserve. But many see the “Wizard of Oz” riff as an ode to old-fashioned soundstage musicals they watched as kids. The other four nominees are also nowhere near as colorful.
Should Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Like “Part One,” “Dune: Part Two” is an astonishing achievement of design in every possible respect.
- “The Brutalist”
- “Conclave”
- “Nosferatu”
Universal Pictures
Will Win, Should Win: “Wicked”
Now that I’ve bashed “Wicked,” Paul Tazewell’s costumes are the finest visual element of the movie, combining the iconography of both “The Wizard of Oz” and Stephen Schwartz’s Broadway musical, while adding on the detail moviegoers expect.
Will Win, Should Win: “The Substance”
The last half hour of the body-horror film is bonkers — and the impressive prosthetics are admirably tactile.
Will Win, Should Win: “Dune: Part Two”
- “Alien: Romulus”
- “Better Man”
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
- “Wicked”
Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya star in “Dune: Part Two.” AP
Will Win: “A Complete Unknown“
Tod Maitland’s soundscape is, well, genuinely folksy, and as vital to whisking us back to 1960s New York and the Newport Folk Festival as Chalamet’s transportive performance and the meticulous visuals.
Should Win: “Dune: Part Two“
I’m enamored with the audio atmosphere of “Dune,” blending tribal chants, orchestral swells, bass-heavy space ships and giant creatures.
- “Emilia Perez”
- “Wicked”
- “The Wild Robot”
