The 2024-25 College Football Playoff continues with a semifinal matchup on Friday, Jan. 10, as Ohio State and Texas meet in the Cotton Bowl for a trip to the national championship. This game takes place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This is the fourth all-time meeting between the Buckeyes and Longhorns on the gridiron. Texas holds a 2-1 series edge over Ohio State. These two teams last met in the ’09 Fiesta Bowl. Also, in an odd scheduling twist, the Buckeyes and Longhorns are scheduled to meet in next year’s season opener on Aug. 30.
Texas is back in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff for the second year in a row. And after falling just short against Washington last season, the Longhorns have their sights set on a win and a chance to play for the title on Jan. 20 in Atlanta. Coach Steve Sarkisian’s squad went 11-2 in the regular season, with its only losses coming to Georgia. After a 38-24 win over Clemson in the first round, the Longhorns needed overtime to beat Arizona State 39-31 in the Peach Bowl to book a trip to Arlington on Friday night.
Ohio State entered the College Football Playoff as the biggest wild-card team. Although the Buckeyes were arguably one of – if the not the No. 1 – most-talented roster in the nation, a 13-10 loss to Michigan on Nov. 30 loomed over this team entering the postseason. Although there were plenty of doubts on whether or not Ohio State could shake off that defeat, coach Ryan Day’s squad has found a different gear in the postseason. The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 in the first round and defeated Oregon 41-21 last Wednesday in the Rose Bowl. Of the four teams remaining the playoff, Ohio State is clearly playing the best ball entering the semifinal matchups.
Ohio State is 2-1 in previous Cotton Bowl treks. The Buckeyes are also 5-4 in playoff appearances. Texas is 11-10-1 in prior trips to the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns are 2-1 all-time in the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State vs. Texas
Cotton Bowl
Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Kickoff: Friday, Jan. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Ohio State -5.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, and Laura Rutledge
Why Ohio State Will Win
Texas has the pieces to match Ohio State, but is any team capable of beating the Buckeyes if they bring their A-Game in the next two matchups? Wins over Tennessee and Oregon showcased the upside and how difficult this team is to beat if it plays up to its potential. Although the loss to Michigan was a setback, Day’s squad has quickly moved that defeat onto the backburner to chase a national championship.
In the two playoff games, Ohio State has scored a combined 83 points and averaged over seven yards a play in matchups against top-40 defenses (by yards per play). Quarterback Will Howard has been on fire in the playoff, completing 41 of 55 passes for 630 yards and five scores. Receiver Jeremiah Smith (70 catches for 1,224 yards) has been unstoppable in the last two games. He’s got plenty of support from running mate Emeka Egbuka (70 caches) and Carnell Tate (43) in the receiving corps, along with tight end Gee Scott (21). Texas has been stingy against the pass for most of the ’24 season, but Clemson moved the ball well (336 passing yards) and showcased a potential blueprint to take advantage of this secondary.
With running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins finding lanes to the edges behind an offensive line that’s stabilized over the last two games after dealing with two major injuries, Day and coordinator Chip Kelly have a versatile and deep attack that Texas will have trouble accounting for on Friday night. Also, Howard is playing some of his best ball of the season. He’s joined a deep receiving corps filled with weapons poised to exploit one of the nation’s top pass defenses. With all of those pieces in place, along with motivation to finish out the year with a national title, all signs suggest the Buckeyes are poised to pick up where they left off in the Rose Bowl.
Although Ohio State is loaded with offensive firepower, the defense is also a key cog on why Day’s team will win this game and move to the national championship. After struggling in an October loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes have found the right formula to elevate this defense into one of the best in the nation again. This unit has not allowed more than 21 points in a contest in each of Ohio State’s last games. Also, the edge tandem of Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau has sparked a pass rush that’s registered 12 sacks in the team’s last two matchups.
Considering the firepower on the Texas sideline, the Buckeyes will give up yardage on Friday night. However, the standout pass rush, along with a secondary thriving at preventing big plays behind safety Caleb Downs, this unit has the right ingredients to keep the Longhorns’ attack in check.
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Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns in the Longhorns’ win over Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Why Texas Will Win
Ohio State has momentum after torching Tennessee and Oregon in the playoff, but Texas is arguably the best remaining team in the field equipped to take down the Buckeyes. With the ability to get after the quarterback and also excel in coverage, the Longhorns have the best mix on defense to contend with Howard, Smith, Egbuka, and a standout Ohio State backfield.
Although the Texas defense has been up-and-down at times in the playoff, this unit is still holding teams to 4.3 yards a play and 14.5 points a game. Additionally, the Longhorns have the pass rushers in Colin Simmons (14 TFL), Barryn Sorrell (10.5 TFL), and Trey Moore (9.5 TFL), along with a strong interior, to test an Ohio State offensive line that struggled late in the regular season but seemed to rebound in the playoff.
On the back end, Texas has allowed only eight passing scores this year and ranks No. 3 in pass defense success rate. All-American cornerback Jahdae Barron had a standout season with five interceptions and 11 pass breakups and is a key cog in the hopes of slowing down Ohio State receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.
It’s a tough assignment to slow down the Buckeyes for all four quarters. But if any team in the playoff is going to do it, Texas has the right mix of pass rush, coverage, and run-stopping ability to keep this unit in check.
Establishing a better ground attack and winning the line of scrimmage on offense is crucial for Sarkisian’s team after a sluggish showing in the Peach Bowl win over Arizona State. The Longhorns average 165.5 rushing yards a contest but was limited to just 53 in the victory over the Sun Devils. Getting right tackle Cameron Williams back in the lineup after missing the Peach Bowl due to injury should help.
Ohio State doesn’t give up much on the ground (just 2.7 yards a carry allowed). However, Michigan managed to churn out 172 yards against this group, and Tennessee posted 152 in the first round of the playoff. With a physical offensive line and Tre Wisner, Jaydon Blue, and Jerrick Gibson in the backfield, the Longhorns can test the Buckeyes’ front.
Similar to the rush defense, Ohio State doesn’t give up much through the air. After struggling in the Oct. 12 loss at Oregon (341 pass yards allowed), the Buckeyes have allowed just two touchdown passes the rest of the year. With a standout offensive line capable of providing solid protection for quarterback Quinn Ewers, Texas has the pieces to exploit the defensive backfield.
The Longhorns need Ewers to bring his A-Game to Arlington on Friday night. The junior has had moments of inconsistency during the ’24 season but has still passed for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns and was outstanding in the late moments of Texas’ victory over Arizona State. A deep group of weapons that includes Matthew Golden (56 catches), Isaiah Bond (33), Ryan Wingo (28), and DeAndre Moore (35) at receiver, along with Gunnar Helm (58) at tight end, will test just how sturdy Ohio State is on the back end.
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Final Analysis
Ohio State or Texas is just 60 minutes away from a trip to the national championship. The Buckeyes have looked unstoppable in the first two rounds of the playoff, but the Longhorns are likely to provide more resistance than Tennessee and Oregon managed against Ohio State so far. The battle in the trenches looms large on Friday night. Can Texas pressure Howard and prevent Smith and the rest of the Buckeyes’ receivers from getting on track downfield? Or will Ohio State’s passing game pick apart a standout Longhorns’ defense? And when Texas has the ball, can its offensive line protect Ewers and establish a ground game? The Longhorns have the right pieces to win this one, but the Buckeyes are simply playing too well right now.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Texas 27
