2024 YR4, is on a path that might lead to a collision with our planet on 22 December 2032.
Scientists have revised the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth when it makes its closest pass on December 22, 2032. According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (Cneos) the chances of a strike by the space rock, which is roughly the size of a football field, have been calculated at 2.3 per cent which is significantly greater than the 1.3 per cent chance given by the European Space Agency (ESA), barely a week ago.
The unassuming asteroid was first spotted in late December by scientists at the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. Since then, 2024 YR4 has become a hot topic of discussion among the scientific community.
The asteroid, measuring around 130 to 300 feet across, may not be big enough to cause a civilization collapse upon the impact but it is big enough to inflict major damage to a big city. It ranks as a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which classifies asteroids on a scale of 0 to 10 to capture the likelihood and consequences of a potential impact.
Objects within the 5 to 7 categories are considered “threatening,” while any certain encounters are classified within the 8 to 10 categories, depending on the severity of impact.
Also read | This Asteroid Could Hit Earth In 2032, Threatening To Wipe Out A City
As per NASA, 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical, four-year orbit, swinging through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and out toward Jupiter. If it does make an impact, the possible impact sites could be the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
The most infamous asteroid impact occurred 66 million years ago, when a six-mile-wide space rock triggered a global winter, wiping out the dinosaurs and 75 percent of all species. By contrast, 2024 YR4 falls into the “city killer” category.
The best modern comparison is the 1908 Tunguska Event, when an asteroid or comet fragment measuring 30-50 meters exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 770 square miles (2,000 square kilometers).
Scientists say that there have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in the reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data is analysed.
