In the past two seasons, Arizona and Duke have faced off on each other’s home courts, both pulling out a road victory with Duke’s win in Tucson coming back in November.

It’s been a little longer since they’ve met in the NCAA Tournament—14 years, to be exact—but now the Wildcats and Blue Devils will square off for a spot in the Elite Eight. And like the last time that scenario played out, the UA will be a sizable underdog.

Fourth-seeded Arizona (24-12) has opened as a 9.5-point underdog against top-seeded Duke (33-3), per FanDuel Sportsbook, for Thursday’s East Region semifinal in Newark, N.J., with an initial over/under of 152.5. KenPom.com projects an 81-73 win for the Blue Devils, giving the UA a 22 percent chance of victory.

The game is scheduled to tip off at 6:39 p.m. PT and air on CBS, though its actual start time will depend on when the first East Region semifinal between No. 2 Alabama and No. 6 BYU is over.

The 9.5-point spread would be the largest Arizona has been an underdog since 2018 and the biggest dog in the NCAA Tournament since 2011 when it was a 9.5-point dog against Duke in the 2011 Sweet 16 in Anaheim. The Wildcats won that game 93-77 behind a monster performance from Derrick Williams.

Arizona hasn’t been an underdog in the NCAA tourney since 2013 when Ohio State was a 3.5-point and won that Sweet 16 game by three. Since 1996 the Wildcats are 12-5 against the spread as a tourney dog, winning seven straight up with the Duke matchup in 2011 the last time that happened.