Five games remain before the NCAA men’s basketball committee renders its verdict on the 68-team field Sunday night. But most of the data is in, most of the work is done and most of the projections can be made.
Sure, there are some caveats — such as whether Alabama Birmingham outright thieves a bid in the American Athletic, or whether the Atlantic 10 can be a multi-team conference should VCU lose the tournament final — but the field is otherwise set and questions can be answered.
And the answers aren’t that much different from nearly a week ago.
In The Washington Post’s Monday projection, the No. 1 seeds were Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida. They remain that way heading into Sunday, with Tennessee, which faces Florida in the SEC title game, the only team with a plausible hope of getting subbed in.
The SEC was in line to have a record 13 teams collect NCAA berths on Monday. With Texas beating Vanderbilt and Texas A&M this week, it might be a record 14 teams.
There were no early bid-snatching shenanigans — Drake won the Missouri Valley last Sunday, and Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s advanced to the WCC final the next night to eliminate the possibility of a surprise there. Outside the Mountain West, there hasn’t yet been a squeezing of the field. And considering how well league tournament winner Colorado State has played the past month, it wasn’t even a surprise.
There have been fun games and great finishes, and Delaware nearly pulled off five wins in five days at the CAA tournament. A couple of No. 6 seeds — Wofford and Mount St. Mary’s, both of whom had winning conference records — claimed league tournaments. But there hasn’t been true madness. Maybe it’s just waiting a bit longer.
Or maybe today will act as that prelude.
Here is a look at Sunday’s conference championship games, followed by our final bracket projection before the tournament selection show at 6 p.m.
Ivy League final: No. 1 Yale vs. No. 2 Cornell, (noon, ESPN2)
Yale (21-7) has won 15 of 16 as it seeks back-to-back Ivy titles and its third in four years. The Big Red (18-10) took losses by 15 points at home and by four in New Haven against the Bulldogs. Cornell hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since its Sweet 16 run in 2010, when current coach Jon Jaques was a senior on the roster.
Bracket impact: It’s a one-bid league. Yale projects as a No. 13 seed, while Cornell would appear to fit best as a No. 14 seed if it wins the Ancient Eight.
Atlantic 10 final: No. 1 VCU vs. No. 2 George Mason (1 p.m., CBS)
It’s a throwback to the old CAA days when these two routinely tangled in March. VCU (27-6) won the regular season meeting in Richmond, 70-54, on Feb. 22, while George Mason (26-7) is trying to collect its first NCAA tournament berth since 2011 and its first conference tournament title since 2008. Expect a rowdy environment; VCU fans will gladly make the two-hour trip to D.C. from Richmond in droves, while Mason is roughly 20 miles from Capital One Arena.
Bracket impact: VCU might have a chance to snag an at-large berth, so there will be interest from borderline tournament teams. George Mason’s only path into the field is to win.
SEC final: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 4 Tennessee, (1 p.m., ESPN)
Since its humbling, 63-44 loss to Tennessee in Knoxville on Feb. 1, Florida (29-4) has scored at least 79 points in every game while going 11-1. Meanwhile, that victory ignited a 10-2 stretch for the Volunteers (27-6), who will try to win their second SEC tournament in four years.
Bracket impact: A No. 1 seed to the winner and a No. 2 seed to the loser? Even though the committee has tended to discount conference tournaments — especially Sunday conference tournament finals — it would be easy enough to flip two teams in the same league based on this outcome.
American Athletic final: No. 1 Memphis vs. No. 3 Alabama Birmingham, (3:15 p.m., ESPN)
Pretty simple here. The American is a one-bid league if Memphis (28-5) makes it through. UAB (22-11) only lost by seven at Memphis two weeks ago, and the Tigers have struggled to get past Wichita State and Tulane the past two days. An upset is far from impossible.
Bracket impact: Memphis will be the guardian angel of some Dayton-bound team if it wins. A UAB victory makes the Blazers a surprise NCAA participant for the second year in a row and ensures the American improves to 11 for 11 all-time in securing multiple field-of-68 bids. Look for Memphis around the No. 7 line, while UAB would probably be headed for the No. 13 line.
Big Ten final: No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 5 Wisconsin, (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Wisconsin (26-8) will try to make it four victories in as many days, and it will see the Wolverines (24-9) for the first time since Michigan claimed a 67-64 victory in Madison on Dec. 3 in both teams’ Big Ten opener. The past six completed Big Ten tournaments have been won by six different schools, a streak that began with Michigan in 2018. The Badgers last won it in 2015.
Bracket impact: Negligible, because the game ends approximately a nanosecond before the selection show begins. Both teams are likely to end up with a protected seed, with Wisconsin more likely a No. 3 seed and Michigan a No. 4 seed.
Last four included: San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Texas, Indiana
First four on the outside: North Carolina, Xavier, Boise State, Ohio State
Next four on the outside: UC Irvine, George Mason, Nebraska, San Francisco
Moving in: Alabama State, Grand Canyon, Mount St. Mary’s
Moving out: Iona, Jackson State, Utah Valley
Conference call: SEC (14), Big Ten (9), Big 12 (8), Big East (4), Mountain West (4), ACC (3), West Coast (2)
Bracket orientation: South vs. West; East vs. Midwest
(1) Auburn vs. (16) NEC/Saint Francis-OHIO VALLEY/SIU Edwardsville
(8) Connecticut vs. (9) Utah State
(5) Clemson vs. (12) CONFERENCE USA/Liberty
(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) BIG SOUTH/High Point
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) SOUTHERN/Wofford
(6) Gonzaga vs. (11) BIG WEST/UC San Diego
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Georgia
(2) BIG EAST/St. John’s vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Bryant
Since the quadrant system was introduced on the team sheets in 2018, the most Quadrant 1 victories in any regular season was the 17 amassed by Kansas in 2022-23. Auburn has 16, which is why the Tigers remain the No. 1 overall seed even after losing three of four. … Liberty will make its sixth NCAA tournament trip, first since 2021 and first as a member of Conference USA. The Flames beat Mississippi State in the first round of the 2019 tournament for their lone NCAA win. …
UC San Diego avoided putting the decision in the committee’s hands, plowing past UC Irvine in the second half to win the Big West and earn an NCAA berth in its first year of Division I eligibility. … Bryant beat Maine in the America East final to secure its second NCAA berth. Unlike in 2022, the Bulldogs should safely avoid going to Dayton for a play-in game. … Moved St. John’s up to the No. 2 line. The Red Storm won 30 games, were double champions in the Big East and now rank in the top 10 in all three results-based metrics.
(1) SEC/Florida vs. (16) MEAC/Norfolk State
(8) Marquette vs. (9) New Mexico
(5) Oregon vs. (12) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State
(4) Arizona vs. (13) WAC/Grand Canyon
(3) Iowa State vs. (14) CAA/UNC Wilmington
(6) Saint Mary’s vs. (11) Arkansas
(7) UCLA vs. (10) MOUNTAIN WEST/Colorado State
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) SUMMIT/Omaha
Norfolk State fended off South Carolina State to win the MEAC for the third time in five years. The Spartans will make their fourth NCAA trip, the first one — when they pulled off a 15/2 upset of Missouri in 2012 — being the most famous. … Grand Canyon won the WAC for the third year in a row and fourth time in five years, upending Utah Valley in Saturday night’s title game in Las Vegas. …
Colorado State will make its third NCAA appearance in four years for the first time since 1963-66 after claiming the Mountain West tournament. The Rams beat Virginia in a play-in game last season. … Tennessee has already played Florida twice, and win or lose today, the teams could be set up for a possible fourth meeting in a region final.
(1) ACC/Duke vs. (16) SWAC/Alabama State-MAAC/Mount St. Mary’s winner
(8) Missouri vs. (9) Baylor
(5) Purdue vs. (12) ATLANTIC 10/VCU
(4) Maryland vs. (13) IVY/Yale
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) SUN BELT/Troy
(6) BYU vs. (11) Indiana/Vanderbilt winner
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Oklahoma
(2) Alabama vs. (15) BIG SKY/Montana
Alabama State will make its fifth NCAA appearance and first since 2011 after beating Jackson State in the SWAC final. … Mount St. Mary’s won the Metro Atlantic in its third year in the league to lock up its first NCAA bid since 2021 and seventh overall. The Mount is best-known for longtime coach Jim Phelan, but four of the five coaches who followed him have now led the program to the tournament. …
It’s really tight for Indiana, which really hasn’t done that much more than either North Carolina or Xavier. There might be one spot for those three teams, unless the committee evaluates Texas or someone else more harshly than anticipated. … Oklahoma probably did enough down the stretch to avoid a trip to Dayton, which looked as if it would be the Sooners’ fate in the past five weeks.
(1) BIG 12/Houston vs. (16) PATRIOT/American
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Mississippi State
(5) Louisville vs. (12) MISSOURI VALLEY/Drake
(4) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (13) MAC/Akron
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) ATLANTIC SUN/Lipscomb
(6) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Memphis vs. (11) San Diego State/Texas winner
(7) Mississippi vs. (10) West Virginia
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) HORIZON/Robert Morris
Houston won the Big 12 tournament in its second year in the conference and should be locked in as a No. 1 seed for the third consecutive year. … Akron earned its second consecutive MAC tournament title and third in four years to land its seventh NCAA invitation, though the Zips are winless all-time in the tournament. …
Memphis remains a seeding enigma: Great results-based metrics, unremarkable predictive metrics and a big pile of high-end victories (6-1 in Quadrant 1, 5-2 in Quadrant 2). A placement on the No. 6 line is simply bet-hedging; seeing the Tigers anywhere from a No. 5 to a No. 8 seed would not be a surprise. … Repeating from Saturday: If there’s a seemingly safe team that might be in more danger than most think, it’s West Virginia. The Mountaineers did much of their best work before Tucker DeVries got hurt in early December.
