• What: Michigan State at Iowa
• When: 8 p.m. ET Thursday
• Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City
• TV/Radio: FS1/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 81 (MSU broadcast), 380 (Iowa broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 24-5 overall, 15-3 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 7 in the Coaches poll and No. 8 in The Associated Press poll, and is No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com and No. 11 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. Iowa is 15-14 overall, 6-12 in the Big Ten and unranked by the Coaches and AP voters. The Hawkeyes are No. 73 via Kenpom and No. 67 in the NET.
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• Betting line: MSU -6.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 731-300 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Iowa — Fran McCaffery is 546-382 in his 29th season as a head coach, including 295-205 in 15 seasons with the Hawkeyes.
• Series: MSU leads 77-60 all-time. This is the first meeting this season. MSU lost the only meeting last season, 78-71, at Breslin Center. The last time the Spartans played in Iowa City, they led by 13 points with 93 seconds remaining and lost in overtime.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.9
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.9
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.9
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 11.0
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 6.8
Iowa
C (13) Ladji Dembele (6-8) 4.3
PF (7) Seydou Traore (6-7) 6.0
SF (20) Payton Sandfort (6-8) 16.1
G (4) Josh Dix (6-6) 14.0
G (3) Drew Thelwell (6-3) 9.8
• MSU update: The Spartans won at least a share of their first Big Ten title in five years when Maryland beat Michigan on Wednesday night. MSU can win the title outright with a win over the Hawkeyes on Thursday. The Spartans have gotten here by winning five straight games — at Illinois, Purdue, at Michigan, at Maryland and, most recently, over Wisconsin. MSU is now ranked in the top five nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, well above the rest of the Big Ten, after the Spartans’ recent run of form. They are fourth-best nationally in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 28.4% from beyond the arc. They also lead the Big Ten in rebounding percentage — both offensive and defensive — and block rate. After Thursday night’s game, MSU finishes the regular season at home Sunday against Michigan.
• Iowa update: The Hawkeyes still have work to do to qualify for the Big Ten tournament, which only includes the top 15 of the Big Ten’s 18 teams. At 6-12, they’re tied for 15th with USC, but USC has the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Hawkeyes have a game Sunday at 7-12 Nebraska, which they beat earlier this season. So a win there could do the trick, too. Iowa’s season sustained a major blow when it lost sophomore big man and leading scorer Owen Freeman to a season-ending injury at the beginning of February. The Hawkeyes weren’t rolling before that, but they’re 2-6 since. There has been chatter about whether this will be Fran McCaffery’s final season at Iowa, though he said recently that he has no intention of moving on.
• Matchup analysis: Iowa is an extreme version of their usual selves this season — last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 3-point defense (allowing teams to shoot a whopping 39.1% from long range in league play). The Hawkeyes haven’t grabbed an offensive rebound since January and get to the free-throw line about once every 70 possessions. I’m exaggerating, but you get the picture. They do, however, take care of the ball and shoot it at a high clip from beyond the arc (36.8% in conference games). Payton Sandfort is the most familiar name their volume shooter from deep, but Josh Dix, Drew Thelwell and Pryce Sandfort have all been more efficient 3-point shooters this season. MSU guards the 3-point line as well as anyone. Iowa will test that. MSU sometimes struggles to make 3s. Iowa will give the Spartans plenty of looks. Both teams love to run. MSU has the advantage on the glass. I think the matchup suits MSU well.
• Prediction: Iowa could play desperate, which is always dangerous. But MSU is playing for something tangible and a number of the Spartans remember what happened two years ago in the final 93 seconds at Iowa, when they lost a 13-point lead. I think MSU will be focused and is the better team, playing against a style the Spartans won’t mind at all.
• Make it: MSU 83, Iowa 74
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
— Graham Couch
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
