The Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten) take on the Missouri Tigers (9-3, 5-3 SEC) in the Music City Bowl on Monday, Dec. 30. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The attention of the SEC and Big Ten descend upon Nashville when bragging rights are on the line between the two super conferences.
The Tigers will make their 1st-ever appearance in the Music City Bowl, as the Southeastern Conference is 9-15 all-time in this game. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz followed up a Cotton Bowl-winning 2023 with 9 wins and 3 losses, all to ranked teams.
The Hawkeyes will make their 2nd-ever appearance in Nashville, previously beating Kentucky in a 21-0 shutout 2 seasons ago. The Big Ten has made 10 appearances in this bowl, winning 4 straight against the SEC.
This game will be a rematch of a game that never happened, as the 2020 edition of the Music City Bowl was canceled due to issues with COVID-19.
Missouri enters the game as a -2.5 favorite with the over/under set at 40.5.
Read on for my Iowa vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Music City Bowl on Monday, Dec. 30.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Missouri Tigers Prediction, Picks
- Iowa vs. Missouri Pick: Over 40.5 or Better
My Missouri vs. Iowa best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Lines
Monday, Dec. 30
2:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Iowa OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+2
-112
40.5
-108o / -112u
+110
Missouri OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-2
-108
40.5
-108o / -112u
-130
- Iowa vs Missouri Spread: Missouri -2, Iowa +2
- Iowa vs Missouri Over/Under: 40.5
- Iowa vs Missouri Moneyline: Missouri ML -130, Iowa ML +110
Iowa vs. Missouri Music City Bowl Betting Preview
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Missing Biggest Playmaker
There may not be many options for the Hawkeyes to generate methodical drives that end in points. Running back Kaleb Johnson has opted out of the game, leaving a huge hole in the Iowa offense.
The junior ended the season with 21 touchdowns and an average of 4.4 yards after first contact.
The bigger issue is the highlight yards left behind, as Iowa had a better rank in rush efficiency than Line Yards, signaling the offensive line was often bailed out by Johnson’s elusiveness.
The quarterback position was solidified with the announcement that Brendan Sullivan is healthy and will start the bowl. The former Northwestern signal-caller finished with just two passing touchdowns and a high blocking grade.
Coordinator Phil Parker’s defense held many of the annual statistics expected from an Iowa defense, ranking top-10 in PFF Coverage grade and Quality Drives allowed.
Fundamentals have never been an issue for the Hawkeyes’ multiple personnel defense, finishing top-25 in both PFF Tackle grade and broken tackles allowed.
However, defending the rush has been a consistent issue for the Hawkeyes. Parker’s defense finished 99th in opponent rush efficiency and 83rd in Defensive Line Yards. Iowa has not found a way to own the trench, falling to 113th in Stuff Rate.
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Missouri Tigers Betting Preview: Brady’s Starting to Cook
Drinkwitz enters the Music City Bowl with a 2-1 record against the spread during the postseason, including one of the largest program victories against the Buckeyes a season ago.
Missouri was unable to continue its upward trend, as numbers in the passing game did not reflect 2023 despite returning players at the skill positions.
Quarterback Brady Cook dealt with numerous obstacles this season, including a high-ankle sprain and throwing hand issues in consecutive weeks to the end of October.
Despite the injuries, Cook ended the season lowering his turnover-worthy play rate to just 1% of passing attempts.
New defensive coordinator Corey Batoon improved many of the tackling issues from a season ago, but the former South Alabama coordinator had consistent issues in the secondary. Missouri finished outside the top 80 in coverage grading, per PFF, as the 3-3-5 defense failed to maintain mid-FBS efficiency in any zone concept except Cover 3.
Batoon did get the Tigers to produce when opponents had critical attempts, as Missouri ranked fourth in third-down defense and 14th in Passing Down Success Rate allowed.
Missouri vs. Iowa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Iowa match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Rush Success7542
Line Yards8323
Pass Success9976
Havoc7135
Finishing Drives8923
Quality Drives7629
Missouri Offense vs. Iowa Defense
Rush Success2099
Line Yards5483
Pass Success9338
Havoc1454
Finishing Drives7520
Quality Drives407
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling2751PFF Coverage484Special Teams SP+6107Middle 851116Seconds per Play30.0 (123)27.8 (90)Rush Rate66% (5)57% (43)
How to Bet My Iowa vs. Missouri Pick
The last two bowl games for the Hawkeyes have been shutout or nothing, getting blanked by Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl last year after beating Kentucky, 21-0, in this bowl two years ago.
Without Johnson in the backfield for head coach Kirk Ferentz, other avenues are needed to put points on the board.
The Hawkeyes once again finished top-10 in special teams, as kicker Drew Stevens connected on all 15 attempts between 20 and 49 yards. Iowa finished eighth in punt return efficiency, per SportSource Analytics, an issue for a Missouri team just outside the top 100 in punt return defense.
Missouri will have its own areas to exploit the Iowa defense, mainly through the rush attack. The Tigers will be without Luther Burden III and his 80 targets out of the slot, so Drinkwitz will lean on his 57% rush rate.
Sun Belt transfer running backs Marcus Carroll and Nate Noel combined for 291 rushing attempts and 39 missed tackles forced on the season.
Missouri is an outside zone team, and the Iowa defense has a middling 49% Success Rate against the run concept. The Hawkeyes have given up an explosive on 13% of opponent attempts using outside zone.
Action Network projects this game within a field goal, but the total could have avenues to going over after dipping in the market.
Iowa should generate plenty of solid field position with special teams, racking up enough scoring attempts for a near-perfect kicker.
The Iowa offense has also fallen to 71st in Havoc allowed, an issue against a top-35 Havoc defense for Missouri that ranks top-20 in fumbles recovered.
The weather will be clear of precipitation and wind for the Music City Bowl. The total has dropped below the third-biggest key number in college football totals of 41, with no indication of the transfer portal or opt-outs getting the number to the next key of 37.
Look for Iowa’s special teams and Missouri’s ground attack to present scoring opportunities.
Pick: Over 40.5 or Better
Iowa vs. Missouri Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Location, Streaming
Location:Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TNDate:Monday, Dec. 30Kickoff Time:2:30 p.m. ETTV / Streaming:ESPN
Iowa takes on Missouri in the Music City Bowl in Nashville on Dec. 30 at 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Iowa vs. Missouri Betting Trends
Iowa vs. Missouri Weather
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