(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Jan. 13, 2025.)
5. The Denver Broncos stood little chance in their 31-7 defeat at Buffalo in the wild-card round. Here’s how Denver can get to the next level.
Sean Payton’s second season as the Broncos’ coach was so much more satisfying than his first. Only salary-cap ramifications lingered from Payton’s sometimes ugly relationship with Russell Wilson, the quarterback he inherited and released before this season.
Payton seemed energized and refocused working with Bo Nix, the quarterback he selected in the first round of the 2024 draft. Nix completed 66 percent of his passes with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. It was a successful season for him, but Denver won with defense, continuing a trend for Payton that began during Drew Brees’ final season in New Orleans.
The Broncos ranked first in defensive EPA per play this season. They were 16th on the offensive side, which was respectable for a team with a rookie quarterback, but not where Payton needs to get the Broncos for the team to win big through his vision.
“You put a top receiver on that team and a little bit better tight end, they will have a nice run,” a veteran evaluator said.
An exec familiar with Payton’s best teams in New Orleans offered a slightly different view.
“They are a dynamic three-down runner away from being very good — like, 13 wins good,” this exec said. “That’s what Sean needs to stay on the field longer and create explosives. Otherwise, it’s a matchup-driven passing game without anyone that can win consistently.”
Put another way, can Payton find a “joker” type like the ones he had as offensive coordinator of the New York Giants (Jeremy Shockey) and while coaching the Saints (Jimmy Graham, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara)? In Denver, Courtland Sutton fits into the Marques Colston mold for Payton, with Marvin Mims filling some of the explosive-play, matchup-oriented role.
“If they had a tight end or runner that could separate and win against man coverage, they would be really tough to deal with,” the exec said.
The Broncos did have Jerry Jeudy, who earned Pro Bowl honors with Cleveland after Denver traded him to the Browns, but the fit was not what Payton was seeking. As the evaluator pointed out, Jeudy was less precise as a route runner than Payton wants for his offense.
With Jeudy in Cleveland, the Broncos got 75 percent of their offensive skill-position snaps from players Payton acquired. That includes 100 percent at quarterback, 92 percent at tight end, 66 percent at receiver and 52 percent at running back (see table below).
Pos% Payton Players
Those figures at receiver and running back will rise as Payton continues to shape the roster.
The next table shows how many victories Payton’s teams have posted every year, and what percentage of those victories featured greater EPA on offense than on defense. His best teams in New Orleans — those from 2008-09 and 2017-19 — were roughly 50-50. These were balanced teams that could win more than one way. Denver is not yet there.
Payton’s teams have won on defense recently, including these past two seasons in Denver. Bolstering the offensive skill could change that.
“Sean will have a clear vision of exactly what he needs, and he will not let anyone get in the way of that,” another exec said.
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