As gold races to new records, Wall Street analysts have rushed to raise their price targets, with the latest call from Macquarie Group predicting the precious metal will touch $3,500 in the third quarter.
On Thursday, gold futures (GC=F) climbed above $2,990 per ounce as a trade war intensified and the release of modest inflation data raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to cut rates this year.
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“Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations,” Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, wrote on Thursday.
“We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of $3,150 per ounce and our single point price high to $3,500 per ounce,” Garvey wrote.
“President Trump’s rapid move to announce, if not always to enact, import tariffs has contributed to geopolitical uncertainty and boosted inflation expectations, helping push down front-end real rates and supporting gold in the face of periodic USD strength and initially reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts,” the strategist wrote.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
The target raise comes after strategists at BNP Paribas called for prices to push above $3,100 per ounce in the second quarter.
“The Trump administration issuing a slew of tariff threats and the realigning of international relationships have added a new layer of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, providing a significant boost to gold,” BNP’s David Wilson wrote in a note on Wednesday.
Gold prices hit a new record amid tariff uncertainties. · OsakaWayne Studios via Getty Images
Gold futures have rallied more than 11% year to date, hitting multiple record highs since January.
Wall Street has attributed much of these gains to continued central bank buying and tariff uncertainty, including the possibility that even imports of the precious metal into the US won’t be spared.
Institutional investors have shipped elevated amounts of physical gold bars to vaults in New York in a move to front-run tariffs and take advantage of a price disparity between London and New York.
Last month, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from their prior projection of $2,890.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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