The Golden State Warriors traded Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schröder, Kyle Anderson, Lindy Waters III, and a top-10 protected first-round pick on Wednesday in exchange for Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler.
It was a big move, obviously. And it was a controversial move, as well. Perhaps not controversial enough to get Joe Lacob booed out of the arena as he was following the Monta Ellis/Andrew Bogut trade (though hopefully the end result is the same), but controversial nonetheless.
Wiggins was a very popular player among Warriors fans, and gained immortality through his elite 2022 NBA Finals performance. Butler is a disgruntled 35-year old with an at-times difficult personality. That’s the tl;dr for anyone who disapproves of the trade, and that’s a large group of people.
Just take a look at some of the comments in our newser on the trade:
You get the picture.
NBA history is rife with fans disapproving of big trades. Oftentimes we’re quickly reminded why GMs are paid millions of dollars and fans are not, but oftentimes the fans end up looking like the smart ones. Only time will tell which is the case with Mike Dunleavy Jr.’s massive swing for Butler.
But while we don’t yet know if it will be a good trade, it’s fairly easy to see why it was a trade that the Warriors made. Here are the main reasons why Butler is in, and Wiggins is out.
The risk is marginal…
Let’s start with something that seems counterintuitive: trading for Butler is surprisingly non-risky. Is there a risk that he’s injured and doesn’t get on the court often? Yes. Is there a risk that he gets upset with the organization, has to get suspended like he did in Miami, and the Warriors try to clear his contract? Yes. Is there a risk that, as a player on the back-half of his 30s, he starts to fall apart and reminds everyone why giving one of the sport’s largest contracts to one of its oldest players isn’t a solid foundation? Yes.
To that I say: so what?
To quote Dennis Green, the Warriors are who we thought they were. Two years ago they finished 44-38, were sixth in the conference, and needed a miracle to escape out of the first round. One year ago they finished 46-36, were 10th in the conference, and missed the playoffs. Today they’re 25-25 and, if the season ended right now, would miss the play-in tournament.
What is this risk I keep hearing about? Nothing is basketball is worse than mediocrity, and the Warriors have showed us quite loudly that they are the very definition of mediocre.
To call this trade risky is to inherently assign value to the status quo. And there is no value in being a .500 team. None whatsoever.
If the trade backfires and Butler never plays a game for Golden State, the Warriors will be a slightly-below-.500 team with that slightly-below-.500 core locked in for a few years. The alternative was to be an exactly-.500 team with that exactly-.500 core locked in for a few years. Forgive me if I can’t spot the difference between those two pictures.
The hope for the Warriors to improve without a big trade rested on growth from their young players, but it’s hard to imagine that growth dramatically outpacing the gradual declines of Steph Curry and Draymond Green (and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Wiggins). That’s simply not enough.
If this trade gives the Warriors a 20% chance of being better and an 80% chance of being worse, then they had to do it, because that beats a 100% chance of being the same.
…but the reward is massive
I’ve seen a lot of opinions floating around that Butler is no longer a great player, and that Wiggins is probably better at this stage in their careers.
I am here to say emphatically and repeatedly that those opinions are wrong.
That is not a shot at Wiggins, who has been having a quality season, and has helped keep the Dubs afloat in recent games. It’s just that we shouldn’t let the dysfunction surrounding the end of Butler’s tenure hide the fact that he is still an absolutely exceptional basketball player.
Even in a year where he’s been overtly checked out, Butler’s raw numbers comfortably surpass Wiggins’. Here are their 2024-25 stats per 100 possessions:
Jimmy Butler: 27.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 1.5 fouls, 63.8% true shooting
Andrew Wiggins: 28.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.1 turnovers, 2.6 fouls, 56.6% true shooting
Per Estimated Plus-Minus, Butler is 96th percentile in offense and 70th percentile in defense. That’s an All-Star caliber player, and that’s with him checked out, and not sharing the court with Curry.
But more important than what Butler is, is what he can be. His superstar days are not far behind him, at all. He’s less than two years removed from a season in which he earned second team All-NBA honors, received votes for both MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, and finished second in Clutch Player of the Year voting.
What was most impressive, however, was what came after that season: one of the most brilliant postseason performances in recent NBA history. Butler dragged a fairly nondescript Miami team to the NBA Finals with outrageous numbers.
In a first-round defeat of the Milwaukee Bucks, Butler averaged 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, while shooting 59.7% from the field and 44.4% from three-point range.
In a semifinals defeat of the New York Knicks he cooled off, averaging “just” 24.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, with relatively poor efficiency as Miami cruised to victory.
In an Eastern Conference Finals defeat of the Boston Celtics, Butler again had mediocre (by his high bar) efficiency, but finished with averages of 24.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, in a sensational defensive showing.
He ran out of steam in the NBA Finals, but if running out of steam means averaging 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.4 assists, while shooting 36.8% on threes, then sign me up.
In total, since the 2020 playoffs, Butler has had 43 postseason games with at least 20 points, 17 postseason games with at least 30 points, and eight postseason games with at least 40 points. During that same time, Warriors players not named “Curry” have had 35 postseason games with at least 20 points, six games with at least 30 points, and no games with more than 32 points.
The risk is continued mediocrity. The reward is the second star that the Warriors have not just been craving, but needing.
Improved versatility
Even in his old (by basketball standards) age, Butler is an exceptional defensive player, and one who offers more versatility on that end of the court than Wiggins did. They’re similarly gifted perimeter defenders, but Butler’s strength and understanding of leverage has made him a wildly-underrated post defender. In the past, the Warriors have taken a defensive hit with small-ball lineups, but it’s easy to see a world in which Butler and Green can form a defensively brilliant frontcourt.
But that versatility is also apparent on offense. Butler is a much better playmaker than Wiggins, and holds the ball a bit less as well, all while being as good of a spot-up shooter. That makes him a much more natural fit alongside Jonathan Kuminga. The Kuminga-Wiggins pairing dramatically improved since last year’s early-season disaster, but was still a clunky fit, especially on offense. But it’s easy to see Butler and Kuminga share the court and thrive.
Efficiency, efficiency, efficiency
Two highly-underrated storylines: how efficient Butler is, and how inefficient the Warriors are.
Butler scores with Steph-esque efficiency — the type of numbers you simply do not see from perimeter-oriented players. His true-shooting percentage of 63.8% this year is 18th in the entire NBA, and the list of names ahead of him is primarily centers and low-usage role players/three-point specialists: Jarrett Allen, Daniel Gafford, Walker Kessler, Jalen Duren, Rudy Gobert, Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Jokić, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Josh Hart, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Grayson Allen, Ty Jerome, Obi Toppin, Evan Mobley, Harrison Barnes, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
But it’s not a one-year, small sample size thing, either. Butler’s true-shooting percentage was 62.6% last year and 64.7% the year before. Over the last 10 seasons, his mark is 59.7% … a staggering figure for a wing player (league average for all players this year is 57.4%). Over the last three seasons, his efficiency has been comfortably better than Curry’s.
It’s needed on the Warriors. The motion-based, Steph-reliant offense has not worked this year. The Dubs are 25th in the NBA with a 55.5% true-shooting percentage, resulting in a bottom-10 offensive rating, per Cleaning The Glass. Wiggins was a perfect third or forth option, but it’s clear the Warriors need a second-option.
Attitude
Butler’s attitude may prove to be an issue. He’s had his fair-share of run-ins with teammates, and has been suspended three times this season by the Heat.
But his attitude is also needed. The Warriors have lacked an edge in recent years; to quote the kids, they emphatically do not have that dog in them.
It was clear that part of the reason the Warriors traded for Schröder was to acquire someone with some fight, aggression, and cockiness in them. But that plays a little differently coming from a backup point guard than from an All-Star.
Golden State desperately needs to return to their days of not backing down from opponents. They need more swagger, more trash talk, more of an outward display of confidence that victory is inevitable. They need someone who will get in the face of an opponent who shoves Curry, and who will laugh at a rival who misses a shot. Or, as Draymond said: “He win? I win? That’s the fit … He’s a winner … Tough as nails. Just f*****g get the job done however it needs to be done.”
There are a lot of reasons why the Warriors traded for Butler, but that quote ties them all together. There’s more winning to be done, and there’s every reason to think Butler will help it happen.
