The Braves and right-hander Craig Kimbrel have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The SportsMeter client will earn a $2MM salary if brought up to the big leagues, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’ll spend some time building up before reporting to Triple-A Gwinnett, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com.
Kimbrel, 37 in May, has been on a rollercoaster in recent years. He had a long run as one of the most effective closers in the league, starting that tenure with Atlanta. From 2010 to 2014, he tossed 289 innings for them, allowing only 1.43 earned runs per nine. His 9.6% walk rate was a bit high but he had a massive 42.2% strikeout rate in that time. He quickly became the club’s closer and earned 185 saves in a four-year stretch from 2011 to 2014. He would continue to produce similar results for a few years, going to the Padres and Red Sox.
But as alluded to, things have been far rockier lately. A free agent after 2018, Boston gave him a $17.9MM qualifying offer. Kimbrel rejected that offer, meaning that any signing club would have to forfeit at least one draft pick. That seemed to have a significant impact on his market, as he remained unsigned until after the summer draft, which was held in June at that time. No longer tied to draft pick forfeiture, he signed a three-year, $43MM with the Cubs in early June of 2019.
Perhaps it was due to missing the first half of the season, but Kimbrel’s results were awful once he became a Cub. He eventually made 23 appearances for them that year, posting an ugly 6.53 ERA. That carried over into the shortened 2020 season, as he had a 5.28 ERA that year. Over those two seasons, he still struck out 35.2% of opponents but his 14.5% walk rate was far higher than average.
In 2021, he seemed to rebound in a big way. He made 39 appearances for the Cubs that year with a tiny 0.49 ERA. His 9.5% walk rate was still above average but a massive improvement over the previous two years. He also punched out 46.7% of batters faced. He was shipped across Chicago at that year’s deadline, with the White Sox sending Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer to the Cubs. Unfortunately, his results immediately backed up, as he posted a 5.09 ERA over the remainder of the season.
Despite that rough finish, the Sox picked up his $16MM club option, though they traded him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock just prior to Opening Day 2022. Heading to Los Angeles seemed to work out for a while, though he again had a rough finish. He had a 33.8% strikeout rate in the first half but punched out just 20.7% of opponents in the second half. He lost the closer’s job in September and then was left off the Dodgers’ postseason roster.
Going into 2023, the Phils gave him a one-year, $10MM deal, which led to a good bounceback season. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA over 71 appearances that year, with a 33.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. But a one-year, $13MM deal with the Orioles last year led to another downturn. He had a 5.33 ERA for Baltimore, striking out 31.5% of batters but also giving out walks 13.4% of the time. He was designated for assignment and released in September.
The overall track record is obviously impressive. Kimbrel has a career ERA of 2.59 and is fifth on the all-time saves list. He’s just seven behind Kenley Jansen, who will close for the Angels this year, and 38 away from third-place Lee Smith. But he’s been incredibly shaky in recent years, so it’s anyone’s guess what he can provide this year.
There’s little harm on a minor league deal. Atlanta can get a close-up look at him over the next few weeks and see how it goes. If he doesn’t look like he can engineer another bounceback, they can simply move on. Some veterans have guaranteed opt-outs in their minor league deals, but that wouldn’t apply to Kimbrel since he was released before the end of the 2024 season. It’s possible he negotiated some opt-outs into his deal, though no details of that nature have been reported yet.
Atlanta’s bullpen took a hit when it was reported that Joe Jiménez will likely miss the entire season due to knee surgery. They should have Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson and Aaron Bummer locked into four spots. One of Ian Anderson or Grant Holmes could have a long relief role. That leaves three spots available early on. Daysbel Hernández is on the roster and could secure one.
The club also has a big collection of notable guys on minor league deals, including Héctor Neris, Enyel De Los Santos, Jake Diekman, Chasen Shreve, Buck Farmer and others. That is perhaps a reflection of the club hoping to avoid the competitive balance tax this year. Per RosterResource, they project to have a $230MM CBT number, about $11MM shy of the $241 base threshold. They have opted to sign many minor league deals and hope that a handful of them turn out to be hidden gems.
Kimbrel will jump into that cluster of non-roster veterans trying to earn major league jobs. He has the most impressive track record of anyone in that group but is a few weeks behind them and will have to overcome the memories of a poor 2024 season.
Photo courtesy of Tommy Gilligan and Kareem Elgazzar, Imagn Images.
