CLEVELAND, Ohio — The best statistical shooter walking knows not to overthink his misses. Cavs guard Ty Jerome, who entered Sunday as the only NBA player shooting 50% from the field, 40% from the 3-point line and 90% from the free throw line, counts himself a pragmatist. Cleveland’s 10-for-40 3-point performance against the Magic, which led to Cleveland’s first loss in 40 days?
“That happens,” Jerome says.
No matter how many shots players hoist after practice, nobody’s perfect. Even Warriors coach Steve Kerr, the NBA’s all-time leader in 3-point percentage (45.4%), missed over half of his attempts. And sometimes, like during Sunday’s 108-103 loss to the middling Orlando Magic, those misses stack.
Only one time have the Cavs, who rank top four in 3-point attempts (second), 3-pointers made (fourth) and 3-point percentage (first) this season, shot worse from deep than they did Sunday. Most days, Cleveland lights Nets on fire and stretches defenses to their breaking points. So from Jerome’s perspective, why stress the one day they didn’t?
“Sometimes the ball goes in and out,” Jerome told Cleveland.com. “That’s why the best shooters ever shoot 40%, But you look at the numbers, and the more good threes you can get, the more it makes sense. Obviously we’ve been shooting a lot of threes this year… So I think it’s a big part of who we are.
“That’s why the playoffs (are) seven games, you know what I mean? You’re not going to shoot bad for seven games.”
I bet the 2022-23 Boston Celtics felt the same way. Over 82 games, those Celts ranked second in 3s made and attempted. They ranked sixth in 3-point percentage and second in regular-season wins (57). Over a seven-game series, they must’ve thought, our shooting prowess will prevail.
Slight hiccup: Boston shot below its season average in five of seven games during the Eastern Conference Finals against eighth-seeded Miami. The 44-38 Heat (17th in 3-point makes, 27th in percentage, 10th in attempts) shot 43.4% for the series. And just like that, one work week of wonky shooting wasted Boston’s season.
It’s not fair. And it’s not likely to happen again. But when playing probabilities, the long-range shooter needs a long runway to prove his math. Or, put another way: A 40% marksman doesn’t shoot 40% all the time.
“I mean, we take it into account,” Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson said Sunday. “But I do think you can rely on that a little too much. ‘Ah we lost because of shooting variance.’ That’s definitely not the one thing.
“I’m thinking of that turnover kind of period we had at the end of the third (quarter). I’m thinking about that slip out three that Caldwell-Pope had (in the fourth quarter). So you’re thinking about, when they don’t go in, you have to be more perfect defensively. And we were really good most of the game, but not perfect.”
I see Atkinson’s response as human nature. You can’t worry about 3-point variance because you can’t control it. Again: Why waste your energy?
Because the Cavs shoot more 3s than ever under Atkinson, which is decidedly a Good Thing. In the age of pace-and-space hoops, 3-point attempts are a reliable bellwether of offensive success. Three is more than two. And if a good team shoots enough threes, the thinking goes, it will eventually make enough to outpace the basketball neanderthals who settle for 17-foot jump shots.
Here’s the flipside, though: The more 3s you shoot, the more a game built on several skills (running, jumping, dribbling, passing) depends on one. Particularly over smaller samples, shooting can swing outcomes. A playoff series can last seven games, but you can only lose three. And when you think of it that way, one off night carries more weight.
True, Cleveland also hurt itself by allowing 26 points off 13 turnovers against the Magic. And it’s worth noting here that All-Star big man Evan Mobley, who missed Sunday’s game with a foot injury would’ve made a massive difference on the court.
But Orlando outscored the Cavs by nine points behind the arch in a game it won by five. Eight of Cleveland’s 11 losses have accompanied 3-point percentages below its season average. And eight of the NBA’s ten best teams this season rank top 10 in at least one 3-point category (makes, attempts, or percentage).
The sport is built around shooting now. Maybe that sounds obvious. As Cavs forward De’Andre Hunter said postgame, “That’s basically every game. Who makes more shots?”
Fine. I don’t pretend to be a genius. And I’m not trying to sound false alarms here. Frankly, if “missing the shots you normally make,” cracks your list of playoff concerns, it’s because your team lacks many flaws.
But watching the Cavs lose to a borderline lottery team due in part to bad shooting luck, I remembered the top-flight Celtics and average Heat. Who knows what Boston could’ve or would’ve done if it had made the shots it should’ve. But the point is they didn’t, and they couldn’t recover.
Begs another question for our resident shooting expert: At what point does money ball hoops meet overreliance?
“You just take what the defense gives you,” Jerome responded. “It’s that simple. If you get the open look, you shoot it.”
