A dangerous severe weather event is unfolding across Alabama and the South today, with the potential for long-track, violent tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central and northern Alabama under a high risk, the highest level on the scale, which is only issued for the most serious severe weather events. Thunderstorms are already ongoing to our west, stretching from near Senatobia in northwest Mississippi down to Monroe, Louisiana. We will be closely watching for storms to develop ahead of this main line, as well as along the line itself as it moves eastward later tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center has reaffirmed the high risk for Alabama in a new MCD, emphasizing the likelihood of a significant tornado outbreak this afternoon and evening. The latest update highlights an increasingly unstable air mass, with rich Gulf moisture surging northward and extreme wind shear in place. Long-track, violent tornadoes remain a major concern, especially with discrete supercells developing ahead of the main line of storms. The main line itself will bring damaging winds over 70 mph, large hail, and additional tornadoes as it sweeps through the state tonight. Now is the time to prepare—have multiple ways to receive warnings, and be ready to act immediately when alerts are issued. They used this wording:
SUMMARY…A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued soon. A tornado outbreak with multiple intense to violent
long-track tornadoes is likely.
The new Day One will be out in an hour and Jack Rudden will have it for you.
The timing of the severe threat will vary by location. West Alabama, including places like Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, and Hamilton, can expect storms from 11 a.m. through 9 p.m. The threat moves into central Alabama, including Birmingham, Montgomery, and Greenville, between 2 p.m. and 11 p.m.. East Alabama, including Auburn, Eufaula, and the Georgia state line, will see storms arrive later, between 4 p.m. and 2 a.m.. These storms will be fast-moving, meaning there will be little time to react when warnings are issued.
The setup for today’s outbreak is textbook for significant severe weather. Skies are mostly sunny across much of central and southern Alabama, which is not good news—it will allow for additional destabilization of the atmosphere. Dewpoints are still in the 50s across the eastern two-thirds of the state, but this will change quickly as powerful moisture transport surges northward, bringing in much higher dewpoints. Meridian, Mississippi, is already reporting a dewpoint of 67°F, a sign of the rich Gulf moisture moving in. This will lead to a warm, unstable air mass ahead of the main line of storms, increasing the risk for strong tornadoes. Wind shear is extremely strong, with low-level helicity values over 400 m²/s², meaning that any storm that forms today has the potential to quickly become tornadic.
There will likely be multiple modes of severe weather. Discrete supercells developing ahead of the main line will have the highest potential for strong, long-track tornadoes, particularly across central and western Alabama this afternoon and evening. The main line of storms later tonight will bring additional tornado potential, as well as widespread damaging straight-line winds exceeding 70 mph. Large hail up to 2 inches in diameter is also a concern, especially in areas where storms remain more isolated.
It is critical that you take severe weather preparedness seriously today. Have multiple ways to receive warnings, including a NOAA Weather Radio, Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone, and local television or radio. Outdoor sirens are not a reliable way to get warnings and should never be your primary method. If you live in a manufactured home, you must have a plan to get to a safe location before storms arrive. Identify a nearby shelter or sturdy building where you can go quickly when a tornado watch is issued.
You can also be a hero today. If you are reading this, you are paying attention to the weather. Many people are not, and they may not realize the seriousness of today’s threat. Reach out to friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors to make sure they are aware. Share weather updates from trusted sources like the National Weather Service, local meteorologists, and emergency management officials. A simple phone call or text message could save a life.
Stay calm, have a plan, and take action when warnings are issued. Make sure you have hard-soled shoes on in case you need to walk through debris. Wear a helmet to protect your head, as most tornado-related injuries are caused by blunt force trauma. Charge your phones and electronic devices now in case of power outages. If a warning is issued for your location, act immediately—do not wait to see the storm. This is a day to be prepared and ready to respond. Stay safe, and we will get through this together. We will do a livestream on the blog starting around 1:30 p.m. (or earlier if necessary) with me, Scott Martin, Scott Brown, Jack Rudden, Jen Narraamore, Lance King, and Brett Adair.
Category: Alabama’s Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Social Media
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A significant tornado outbreak is expected across Alabama this afternoon and evening, with the potential for long-track tornadoes, damaging winds over 70 mph, and large hail as storms rapidly develop and move eastward.
A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected across northern and central Alabama this afternoon and evening, with numerous strong to violent, long-track tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail posing a significant threat.
Storms will start moving into Northwest and West Central Alabama after 2:30 a.m. They could be severe and may even produce tornadoes.
It is moving in the general direction of Tupelo. The environment will become slightly less unstable the further northeast it goes, but the shear will remain just as strong so there is no sign the storm will weaken.
A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected, with long-track, violent tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail posing a significant threat across Alabama and the Deep South.
The second round of storms arrives Friday night with the potential for severe weather, including damaging winds and large hail, and the main event unfolds Saturday with a significant outbreak expected across Alabama and Mississippi, featuring supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail.
The storms over North Central Alabama have weakened in the past hour and no warnings are in effect. The strongest storm is over Winston County and will push into northern Walker and eventually southern Cullman, Blount, and northern Jefferson counties.
Severe thunderstorms in northwestern Winston County are producing 60 mph wind gusts, quarter-size hail, and dangerous lightning—seek shelter indoors immediately.
Severe thunderstorms moving east through southeastern Franklin and southwestern Lawrence counties may produce 60 mph winds, quarter-size hail, and frequent lightning—seek shelter indoors immediately.
Strong storms are already forming over West Alabama this morning.
Smoke from a prescribed burn in Winston County has drifted into the Birmingham area, prompting a Code Red Air Quality Alert for Jefferson and Shelby Counties on Tuesday.. Air quality is not good tonight either.
No severe storms are expected across Central Alabama this afternoon, but we are monitoring a severe weather threat that is firming up for Saturday.
Today will bring rain and cooler temperatures as spring approaches, with fluctuating conditions, midweek showers, and a gradual warming trend into next week.
There are a couple of storms over South Central Alabama tonight with gusty winds and lightning, but there won’t be severe. Closer to the coast, there could be some severe weather overnight.
