There’s a febrile atmosphere to the Oscars this year, caused largely by events outside Hollywood’s control. The advent of Trump and the consequent assault on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives (for which the film industry has been a rather visible target), the widespread devastation of the Los Angeles wildfires, and the ongoing mystery around the deaths of Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa, mean that minds are inevitably wandering elsewhere. Like last year, too, strife over Israel/Gaza is hovering in the background. Inside the industry, things aren’t so rosy either: the row over Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón’s grotesque social media posts has dominated the awards campaign, while many Hollywooders may be silently quivering at the prospect of AI taking their jobs.
As for the Oscars themselves, in-the-know types are saying the race for best picture is the most open for years. First it seemed like The Brutalist would win, then Anora came roaring through, and now there’s a possibility that Conclave might snatch it. This is assuming, of course, that Emilia Pérez has successfully shot itself in the foot; having emerged at the head of the nominations list with 13, what are the odds it will beat the record of 11, held by The Turning Point (in 1978) and The Color Purple (in 1986), and not win a single one?
Well, it doesn’t look like a complete wipeout for Emilia Pérez (see below); but its crisis is another film’s opportunity (and, to the outsider, Conclave and Anora look to be the main beneficiaries). As to the ceremony itself, we get Conan O’Brien as host (which might mean a return to the more waspish tone of yesteryear), and a bit of a kerfuffle over the song nominations; they won’t get performed this year, but there will be a Wicked medley, tributes to Quincy Jones and James Bond, the Los Angeles Master Chorale and Blackpink’s Lisa. Sounds like that’s covering a lot of bases.
How to watch
In the US: The E! channel gets things under way with Countdown to the Red Carpet at 14:00 PT/17:00 ET. ABC starts its coverage with The Oscars Red Carpet Show at 15:30 PT/18:30 ET, before the ceremony begins at 16:00 PT/19:00 ET.
In the UK: ITV has the rights again this year, with Oscars Live starting on ITV1 and streaming platform ITVX at 22:30 GMT.
In Australia: 7Bravo is carrying E!’s red carpet coverage from 08:00 AEDT on Monday. Channel 7 is picking up Red Carpet Live at 09:30 AEDT, with the ceremony show getting under way at 10:00 AEDT.
Preparation
There’s a lot to read about the Oscars. Here are the most important.
Guardian writers step up for their favourite best picture nominee
Timothée Chalamet deserves an Oscar – for his Oscar campaign
From Blitz to Gladiator II: the Oscar-aiming films that missed this season
‘Stick-it-to-the-man sentiment’: Oscar-nominated films compete to bait Donald Trump
Plus interviews with key players: Cynthia Erivo, Demi Moore, Mikey Madison, Karla Sofía Gascón, Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, Coralie Fargeat, Adrien Brody and Ralph Fiennes.
Predictions
Some of these have been dead certs for weeks; others less so. Everyone’s had their say, including our own Peter Bradshaw, and a whole bunch of anonymous Oscar voters, so here’s a last call.
Best picture The Brutalist
Best actor Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Best actress Demi Moore, The Substance
Best supporting actor Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Best supporting actress Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Best director Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Best song Mi Camino, Emilia Pérez
Best adapted screenplay Conclave
Best original screenplay Anora
Best documentary No Other Land
Best animated film The Wild Robot
Best international film Emilia Pérez
And finally …
Our bespoke guides to the big categories: best picture, best actress, best actor and best director
