The 2025 NFL offseason already has some action, with the Commanders trading for 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and the Bears adding two guards in a pair of deals. Those are the first big moves as we near free agency, which begins with the legal negotiating window March 10 and officially opens March 12.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading every 2025 NFL signing and trade of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players. To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, either this season or in the future?
Follow along as Walder evaluates and grades each move, with the most recent grades at the top.
coverage:
Bowen: Ranking the top 100 free agents
Schatz: Projecting one signing for every team
Solak: Franchise tag deadline winners, losers
Jump to a big-name deal:
Thuney to the Bears
Bears get: G Joe Thuney
Chiefs get: 2026 fourth-round pick
Bears grade: B
Chiefs grade: B+
It takes a willingness to be bold for the Chiefs — who just lost the Super Bowl in part because they weren’t able to adequately protect Patrick Mahomes — to trade one of their best offensive linemen. But you know what? I think it makes sense!
In order to make the Chiefs jigsaw puzzle work, they were going to have to make some tough choices somewhere. In Thuney, they had an elite guard, but he is also a 32-year-old player with only one year left on his deal. To get a real asset in exchange for him now is good business, even if it stings. And that’s especially true because the Chiefs — who were $14 million over the cap on Wednesday morning before the deal, per Roster Management System — needed to find cap savings somewhere. Dealing Thuney will free up $16 million in 2025 cap space. Presumably the Chiefs will work hard to sign franchise-tagged Trey Smith to a long-term deal. Smith is a very good guard who may not be quite at Thuney’s caliber but is crucially only 25 years old.
Let’s talk about whom the Bears are getting, because there’s no question that Thuney is still an exceptional player. He has been a first-team All-Pro in each of the past two years (and was second-team the year before that) and the advanced numbers back up those awards. Thuney has led the league in pass block win rate at guard in every season since 2021. That’s a nice player for Caleb Williams to have in front of him. The Bears, clearly, wanted to make it a priority to fill the gaps in the middle of their offensive line and protect Williams. While I am skeptical that anything other than Williams was the main culprit for his league-leading 68 sacks last season, good pass protection certainly goes a long way toward overall offensive success (not just sack avoidance), and that’s something that Ben Johnson knows all too well.
I like today’s deal much better for Chicago than yesterday’s move for Jonah Jackson. Consider that the Bears are currently slated to pay Thuney — maybe the best guard in football — a little less than Jackson, who was benched last season. Yes, they’re giving up more in draft capital, but still.
That draft capital is pretty significant … a fourth-round pick for what is currently a one-year rental of Thuney. To be fair, Thuney’s current cost is also a bit of a value, though. He’ll cost Chicago $16 million this season while the top non-tag guard average is Landon Dickerson at $21 million per year. Then again, there’s a good chance the Bears might want to make this a multiyear arrangement. And given the position he plays and the level he has played it, that’s not wild. Offensive linemen can still have success well into their 30s.
Given Chicago’s plethora of cap space, its need to develop Williams and the fact that Thuney is an elite player, I can get on board with this move. — Walder
Jackson to the Bears
Bears get: G Jonah Jackson
Rams get: 2025 sixth-round pick
Bears grade: D
Rams grade: A
The Bears are letting the Rams off the hook — and paying a late-round pick to do it.
After signing a three-year, $51 million free agent deal with Los Angeles last offseason, 2024 went about as poorly as possible for Jackson. The guard landed on IR after Week 2, returned to play one game in Week 10 and then was promptly benched (he played again in Week 18 when the Rams rested starters).
Only $8.5 million of the $17.5 million owed to Jackson in 2025 is guaranteed, which — in my view — made him a candidate to be released or dealt on a restructured deal with the Rams eating some of the money (or attaching a draft pick). Instead, the Rams not only got Jackson’s guaranteed money off their books, but they received a pick to do it!
At a different price, Jackson would have been a player I’d want to bet on. He had solid seasons in 2021 and 2022 with the Lions, with average to above-average run and pass block win rates in each of those seasons. He was worse in 2023, with his run block win rate dropping to a below-average 67%. But he still got paid in a hot guard market, then had his lost year in Los Angeles. Scheme change might have played a factor — the Rams ran the heaviest duo scheme of any team in 2024, and Jackson came from the outside-zone heavy Lions.
But no matter the reason, Jackson’s value is surely lower today than it was a year ago. The Rams paid just $16.5 million in cash for one season of Jackson in 2024. Now the Bears are going to pay a sixth-round pick and $17.5 million in cash for him in 2025?
The Bears are probably feeling somewhat desperate about their offensive line given that both of their starting guards and starting center from last season are hitting free agency. And quarterback Caleb Williams was sacked a league-high 68 times in 2024 (though I’d contend that figure is more on Williams than the offensive line). Plus, Jackson was successful in Detroit under new Bears head coach Ben Johnson.
But I still don’t see how it makes sense for Chicago to overpay for someone else’s mistake at this point of the offseason. The Bears forgot the “low” part of buying low on a contract.
Samuel to the Commanders
Commanders get: WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
49ers get: 2025 fifth-round pick
Commanders grade: B
49ers grade: B+
Samuel is a unique player. At his peak, his after-the-catch skills were unparalleled. Over the past four seasons, Samuel has posted a league-high 87 YAC score — 21 points higher than every other receiver in ESPN’s receiver scores (Ja’Marr Chase is next best at 66). His exceptional yards-after-catch skills have masked his subpar abilities in other traditional receiver facets. (His open and catch scores have been below average in each of the past four seasons and declined in that span.)
Samuel’s production has declined in recent years. And after posting an absurd 1,405 receiving yards on 3.1 yards per route run (along with 365 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns) in 2021, he hasn’t approached those numbers. He’s coming off a poor 2024 in which he recorded only 670 receiving yards on 1.8 yards per route run. It’s not unreasonable to wonder if we will see Samuel, 29, come close to his peak again.
play
How Deebo Samuel will supercharge Commanders’ offense
Louis Riddick explains how Deebo Samuel will impact Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders’ offense.
Considering San Francisco’s plethora of wide receivers and the $17.6 million cap hit coming due, it was understandable that the team was looking to move on from Samuel, who had requested a trade. And Washington was a logical candidate to acquire him. It’s time for the Commanders, flush with cap space and in Year 2 of the Jayden Daniels era, to push their chips into the middle of the table. And receiver is a clear position of need behind Terry McLaurin, particularly with late-season breakout Dyami Brown being an impending free agent.
Samuel appears to be a nice fit in Washington’s offense; he provides another threat close to the line of scrimmage and can complement Daniels’ running prowess. Washington’s 4.6 expected YAC per reception last season wasn’t amazing, but it was better than the 49ers’ 4.3 (sixth worst). And 11% of Washington’s wide receiver targets came on screens (third highest). You’d expect more next season with Samuel surely receiving many.
On the other hand, if the Commanders enter the season with Samuel as their No. 2 wide receiver, that will be a weakness — and I will think less of this deal. I’ll grade it under the assumption that the Commanders jumped at this opportunity with the intention to add another solid receiver later in the offseason (either in free agency or early in the draft). Many potential veterans could be available via trade or free agency, such as Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams (assuming he’s cut), Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs. But some of those players are far from guaranteed to hit the market and none is perfect.
That leads to a big question: Isn’t $17.6 million and a fifth-round pick for one year of a No. 3 wide receiver a lot to pay? You bet. But the circumstances dictate the Commanders’ aggression to add playmakers, and Samuel provides offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury the ability to add wrinkles to what was already a successful offense in 2024.
From San Francisco’s perspective, the team has invested heavily in Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall (and maybe could spend more on Jauan Jennings). The 49ers got a nice return for Samuel, whom — absent a trade partner — they might have released.
