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The stat was making the rounds after Auburn didn’t make the championship game of the SEC tournament: No team has lost three of its last four games before the NCAA tournament and won a national championship.
And yet, Auburn still was a somewhat surprising pick as the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.
Auburn stumbled late in a very tough league, which might open things up for the other teams in the South region. We’ll wait on Auburn’s first-round opponent until Alabama State and St. Francis play in the First Four at Dayton on Tuesday (we’ll be waiting to see if San Diego State or North Carolina play Ole Miss on Friday, as well), but here are the rest of the picks for the first round in the South, with all the odds from BetMGM:
Midwest region picks | East region picks
All times Eastern.
The first game of the first round Thursday is a good one. Louisville seems very under-seeded, but that’s part of playing in a bad ACC. Still, since Dec. 14 the Cardinals are 21-2 and one of the losses came to Duke in the ACC tournament. Creighton has been a very good team too, and 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner will be a problem for the Cardinals. But I won’t hold it against Louisville that the ACC was down. The Cards advance.
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Yale has become the Ivy’s best program, and this season it dominated the league. Yale was 16-1 after Dec. 22. Texas A&M is a good team, but it lives off offensive rebounding (the best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation), and yet Yale is pretty good on the defensive boards. The Ivy League has been pretty good in the first round of the NCAA tournament, going 9-6 against the spread over the past 15 tournaments (per Matt Eisenberg’s Tournament Binder). Texas A&M could make a run into the second weekend, but this one isn’t going to be easy.
Vladislav Goldin helped lead the Michigan Wolverines to a Big Ten tournament championship. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
Ah, the 5 vs. 12 game. We all know by now this is where upsets come from, and UC San Diego is a dangerous 12 seed. KenPom.com had San Diego as the 36th best team in the sport, which is rarified air for a Big West school. That’s just one spot below UConn, the reigning champs. San Diego does everything well, and it shoots (and hits) a lot of 3s. The problem is UCSD’s size. It doesn’t have a regular who is taller than 6-8. Michigan is the rare team with two 7-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. If UCSD hits a ton of 3s this could be a fun upset, but this was a really unfortunate matchup for a strong mid-major.
Iowa State looked like it could be a Final Four contender, but the last month was a little rough. Injuries affected the Cyclones. It appears Tamin Lipsey (10.8 ppg) will return from injury, but Keshon Gilbert (13.4 ppg) is out for the season via the Des Moines Register. That lowers the Cyclones’ ceiling. Lipscomb has a lot of shooters, which is what you want from a big underdog. If Lipscomb can knock down some of the many 3s it’s going to take, this one could be interesting late.
If you like guard play, this will be a fun matchup. Marquette’s Kam Jones is one of the best players in the country, a Bob Cousy Award finalist for the trophy that goes to the nation’s best point guard. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent and his 20.6 points per game should get more respect for postseason honors. Marquette won just five of its last 12 games, but there weren’t any bad losses. This isn’t an easy pick between two similar but flawed teams. Marquette might be happy to not see a Big East foe.
Michigan State had a tremendous season. The Spartans were good to bettors too, posting a 22-10-1 mark against the spread via Action Network, one of the best marks in the sport. MSU won’t shoot many 3s, won’t shoot them well, but can score inside and rebound it well. Bryant is one of the few 15 seeds that actually has some decent size. It has the sixth-tallest team in college basketball, according to KenPom.com. The Bulldogs didn’t play a tough schedule and against the two best teams they played, St. John’s and Grand Canyon, they lost by 22 and 46, respectively. There’s no upset concern here, but Bryant might not be a total pushover.
