For the past three decades or so, I’ve printed out a blank bracket on Selection Sunday to fill out as the NCAA tournament is announced. I used to hem and haw over my selections for days, and it never worked out, so now we’re taking tinkering out of the process and revealing my bracket picks … instantly.
Nothing is really changing in the next four days anyway, right? This might be a bad year to say that, given the spate of injuries that occurred during Champ Week. But the larger point stands — the games, the evaluations, the statistics, the data we need to make our picks is all in.
So here’s my true instant bracket, filled out (by hand!) as the field was announced. And I promise not to make any changes. No second-guessing here!
Jump to: South Region | East Region | Midwest Region | West Region | Final Four
First Four (Dayton)
SOUTH REGION
No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels 71, No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs 64
No. 16 Alabama State Hornets 74, No. 16 St. Francis Red Flash 72
EAST REGION
No. 16 American University Eagles 62, No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers 59
MIDWEST REGION
No. 11 Xavier Musketeers 81, No. 11 Texas Longhorns 78
South Region (Atlanta)
FIRST-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Auburn Tigers 94, No. 16 Alabama State Hornets 52
No. 9 Creighton Bluejays 76, No. 8 Louisville Cardinals 73
No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons 70, No. 5 Michigan Wolverines 68
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies 69, No. 13 Yale Bulldogs 63
No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels 82, No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels 79
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones 80, No. 14 Lipscomb Bisons 63
No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles 79, No. 10 New Mexico Lobos 75
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans 86, No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs 63
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SECOND-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Auburn 80, No. 9 Creighton 74
No. 12 UCSD 71, No. 4 Texas A&M 70
No. 3 Iowa State 75, No. 11 North Carolina 72
No. 2 Michigan State 70, No. 7 Marquette 65
SWEET 16 PICKS
No. 1 Auburn 83, No. 12 UCSD 69
No. 2 Michigan State 69, No. 3 Iowa State 67
ELITE EIGHT PICK
No. 1 Auburn 76, No. 2 Michigan State 73
play
Which teams can challenge Auburn in the South Region?
Jay Bilas, Seth Greenberg and Jay Williams discuss which teams in the South Region could give No. 1 overall seed Auburn trouble.
REGION ANALYSIS
Auburn fell into a tailspin to end the season, losing three of its final four games entering the NCAA tournament — but the Tigers had already locked in the overall No. 1 seed weeks before the selection show with a historically strong résumé. Finally getting out of the SEC might help them refocus and regain their early-season form. There could be parallels to draw with the 2007 Florida team that rolled through the country for 3½ months, then lost three of its final four regular-season games — that squad went on to dominate the postseason and win its second straight national championship.
Marquette vs. New Mexico is an interesting first-round matchup, headlined by the point guard battle between Kam Jones and Donovan Dent.
I also like two double-digit seeds in this region: 11-seed North Carolina, which was one of the last teams in the field, and 12-seed UCSD, which owns the nation’s longest winning streak. Give me the Tritons to make a run to the Sweet 16.
Auburn has a smooth path to the Elite Eight, though Johni Broome against Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner would be a terrific head-to-head matchup if the Bluejays survive the opening round.
I would have had Iowa State advancing to the Elite Eight, but as the bracket was revealed on Sunday, T.J. Otzelberger announced that Cyclones star guard Keshon Gilbert is out for the tournament — that frees up the path for Michigan State. Tom Izzo will have a plan to deal with Broome in the Elite Eight, but Auburn has too much firepower around its star big man and will advance to the second Final Four in program history.
Jump to: South Region | East Region | Midwest Region | West Region | Final Four
East Region (Newark)
FIRST-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils 89, No. 16 American University Eagles 55
No. 9 Baylor Bears 69, No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs 66
No. 5 Oregon Ducks 71, No. 12 Liberty Flames 62
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats 92, No. 13 Akron Zips 80
No. 6 BYU Cougars 77, No. 11 VCU Rams 71
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers 81, No. 14 Montana Grizzlies 62
No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels 64, No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores 59
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide 97, No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials 70
SECOND-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Duke 80, No. 9 Baylor 70
No. 4 Arizona 76, No. 5 Oregon 66
No. 6 BYU 80, No. 3 Wisconsin 78
No. 2 Alabama 77, No. 7 Saint Mary’s 67
SWEET 16 PICKS
No. 1 Duke 84, No. 4 Arizona 76
No. 6 BYU 90, No. 2 Alabama 88
ELITE EIGHT PICK
No. 1 Duke 83, No. 6 BYU 72
play
Should Duke rest Cooper Flagg in its first-round matchup?
Jay Bilas, Seth Greenberg and Jay Williams debate whether Duke should rest Cooper Flagg until the second round of the tournament.
REGION ANALYSIS
This region will be offense, offense, offense. Duke, Alabama, BYU, Arizona, Wisconsin and Baylor are all ranked inside the top 16 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom — if you like points, this region is for you.
Cooper Flagg‘s health is arguably the biggest storyline entering the NCAA tournament, but if his ankle is OK by the second weekend, Duke is the favorite to get to San Antonio. A potential Caleb Love vs. Duke matchup in the Sweet 16 is interesting, but the Blue Devils have too much.
The bottom half of the bracket, though, is wide open.
Alabama hasn’t played well over the past month, really struggling defensively, and Grant Nelson suffered an injury during the conference tournament. On the other hand, BYU is the No. 4 team in the country since mid-February, per Bart Torvik, and Wisconsin seemed to snap out of its minislump in the Big Ten tournament. If Nelson is out and BYU can continue playing as well as it has in the past few weeks, there’s a real chance the Cougars can get to the Elite Eight.
That’s where BYU’s potential run would end, though. Duke is elite defensively, with size all over the floor, and the Blue Devils’ ability to match the Cougars’ shotmaking at the other end — plus the presence of Flagg — would send the Cougars home.
After falling one game short a year ago, Duke has a clear path to the Final Four.
Jump to: South Region | East Region | Midwest Region | West Region | Final Four
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
FIRST-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Houston Cougars 80, No. 16 SIU Edwardsville Cougars 51
No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs 81, No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs 67
No. 5 Clemson Tigers 70, No. 12 McNeese Cowboys 68
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers 77, No. 13 High Point Panthers 70
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini 84, No. 11 Xavier Musketeers 80
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats 88, No. 14 Troy Trojans 74
No. 7 UCLA Bruins 75, No. 10 Utah State Aggies 70
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers 78, No. 15 Wofford Terriers 61
SECOND-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Houston 71, No. 8 Gonzaga 69
No. 5 Clemson 72, No. 4 Purdue 68
No. 6 Illinois 87, No. 3 Kentucky 85
No. 2 Tennessee 64, No. 7 UCLA 58
SWEET 16 PICKS
No. 1 Houston 68, No. 5 Clemson 60
No. 2 Tennessee 70, No. 6 Illinois 66
ELITE EIGHT PICK
No. 1 Houston 65, No. 2 Tennessee 62
REGION ANALYSIS
Houston received a 1-seed for the third straight season, but can the Cougars advance further than the past two times, when they were knocked out in the Sweet 16? This version of Houston is much better offensively than the previous two, especially from the perimeter, ranking fourth nationally in 3-point percentage. But the committee did Kelvin Sampson’s team no favors by setting it up with Gonzaga — a top-11 team in every predictive metric — in a potential second-round game.
McNeese and High Point are going to be popular double-digit upset picks, but I’m not sure either has a great first-round matchup. Clemson made the Elite Eight last season, and has Chase Hunter on the perimeter and the size inside to beat McNeese, while Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn should be enough to beat High Point.
Tennessee’s elite defense will be tested by either Illinois or Kentucky in the Sweet 16, although the Vols already played both teams (and got swept by the Wildcats). Without Jaxson Robinson and a healthy Lamont Butler, though, I have Mark Pope’s team going out to Illinois in the second round.
Which version of Illinois will show up: the one that won at Michigan by 20 in early March, or the one that lost by 43 to Duke and by 23 to Maryland in the past few weeks? If it’s the former, the Illini have a shot to beat Tennessee — but it’s hard to trust the inconsistency.
In what should be a war of attrition in the Elite Eight, Houston’s superior firepower should get the Cougars past Tennessee and into the Final Four.
Jump to: South Region | East Region | Midwest Region | West Region | Final Four
West Region (San Francisco)
FIRST-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Florida Gators 90, No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans 60
No. 8 UConn Huskies 79, No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners 67
No. 12 Colorado State Rams 72, No. 5 Memphis Tigers 70
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins 77, No. 13 Grand Canyon Lopes 66
No. 6 Missouri Tigers 67, No. 11 Drake Bulldogs 65
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders 75, No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks 61
No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks 74, No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks 67
No. 2 St. John’s Red Storm 80, No. 15 Omaha Mavericks 58
SECOND-ROUND PICKS
No. 1 Florida 81, No. 8 UConn 77
No. 4 Maryland 76, No. 12 Colorado State 69
No. 3 Texas Tech 77, No. 6 Missouri 68
No. 2 St. John’s 73, No. 7 Kansas 62
SWEET 16 PICKS
No. 1 Florida 82, No. 4 Maryland 75
No. 2 St. John’s 68, No. 3 Texas Tech 67
ELITE EIGHT PICK
No. 1 Florida 79, No. 2 St. John’s 78
play
Calipari’s Arkansas and Pitino’s St. John’s facing off would be drama in West
Seth Greenberg, Jay Bilas and Jay Williams dive into the storyline of John Calipari’s Arkansas potentially facing Rick Pitino’s St. John’s in a highly anticipated second-round matchup.
REGION ANALYSIS
This is the toughest region, bar none.
Before the field was announced, I made a short list of teams I could see myself picking to make the Final Four — only seven teams made the cut. And four of them are in this region.
There’s not a team in the country playing better than Florida right now, but as the fourth 1-seed, the Gators have a brutal path to San Antonio: a second-round matchup with the two-time reigning national champions, followed by a potential Sweet 16 game against Maryland, followed by an Elite Eight game against either St. John’s or Texas Tech. I think they’ll get there, but it won’t be easy.
Colorado State is my upset pick in this region. The Rams have won 10 in a row, including winning the Mountain West Conference tournament, and Nique Clifford has been playing like a bona fide first-round pick over that stretch. I have them beating a Memphis team that could be without Tyrese Hunter.
The coaching matchups at the bottom of the bracket are fascinating. Bill Self vs. John Calipari in the first round, with the winner facing Rick Pitino. St. John’s vs. Texas Tech would be the best Sweet 16 game in the tournament; both teams are incredibly tough, but Pitino has two guys in Kadary Richmond and RJ Luis Jr. who can take over a game, while St. John’s ability to crash the glass and draw fouls will make life difficult for JT Toppin.
It’s hard picking against Pitino and the Johnnies, given how good they have been all season, but the Gators have the physicality to weather the Red Storm — and are just operating at an incredibly high level.
Jump to: South Region | East Region | Midwest Region | West Region | Final Four
Final Four (San Antonio)
FINAL FOUR PICKS
No. 1 Florida 85, No. 1 Auburn 82
No. 1 Duke 70, No. 1 Houston 69
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PICK
No. 1 Florida 76, No. 1 Duke 75
FINAL FOUR ANALYSIS
It’s the chalkiest Final Four I have ever had. All four 1-seeds. I hate it as much as you do.
As explained above, though, the only non-1-seeds I trusted enough to reach San Antonio were all in the same region as the team I’m picking to cut down the nets.
On one side of the bracket, I like Florida over Auburn. The Gators beat the Tigers on the road back in early February and have the bigs to deal with Broome one-on-one and make it tough for him to beat them with tough 2s around the rim all night. Florida can beat you in multiple ways, and the Gators have improved their depth over the course of the season after dealing with injuries during conference play.
On the other side, I like Duke to beat Houston. These are two elite defenses and some of the best 3-point shooting teams in college basketball. The Cougars are the tougher team, but the Blue Devils are bigger across their starting five, getting the edge because of Flagg.
Florida vs. Duke in the title game. One coach without a single NCAA tournament win in his career against a team starting three freshmen — it’s not the most comfortable national championship game, but both teams have been utterly dominant for most of the second half of the season and are fantastic at both ends of the floor.
The difference for me? Walter Clayton Jr. When the chips are down, I’m not sure there’s a better guard in the country at being able to get his own shot — and make that shot. The Gators are cutting down the nets.
